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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jim McMannis who wrote (91284)	2/3/2000 11:33:00 AM
From: kash johal	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 1574539

Jim, Re:"freeze the market" I am sure you are right to an extent. AMD however has its head up its ass with the cat and mouse game. Willy is undoubtedly real. It may well ship in volumes in Q4 this year. So i still see some upside from Q1 to Q2. But i would be cautious for Q3/Q4. Having said all that Athlons are gonna be dirt cheap to produce in the sockets. So an Athlon with 128K on chip cache in socket A may well run 1ghz-1.2Ghz in Cu in 2H 2000 and cost around $50 to boot. AMD should be able to sell 5M or so of those /quarter at a $100-120 ASP IMHO. Couple that with 1-2M mustangs at a $200-300ASP and you still have close to a $1.5bn quarter. If you recall last year 400Mhz was high end and by end of year it was basically dropped into the gulag. By Q4 todays high end 800Mhz will likely be in the gulag as well - except for laptops. I find it difficult to see where the celeron,timna and via will fit in here. regards, Kash

To: Jim McMannis who wrote (91284)	2/3/2000 11:37:00 AM
From: Elmer	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1574539

Re: "Sure looks like Intel is trying to freeze the market. They are starting to hype the Willy already. This must be their newest form of a launch...launch on first silicon...get Dell excited..." I think we need to put things into perspective. Athlon is still a fine product and that won't change overnight. Willamette is still months off, at best, and a lot can happen between now and then. However I think it should also be realized that Intel won't be screwing up forever and those who have counted on that should do a reality check. Intel made the mistake of counting on an AMD screwup. AMD didn't screw up. Now I think people here are making the same mistake in reverse. There is still money to be made here and I intend to still sell puts, as usual. Just realize that there could possibly be trouble ahead. That's all. EP