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Technology Stocks : Lucent Technologies (LU) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mighty Mizzou who wrote (13205)	2/3/2000 1:03:00 PM
From: Techplayer	Respond to of 21876

Mighty, For now, but look at the growth of NT versus LU in that area. Check this out regarding the 400G... "While the absolute level of these bandwidth projections and the growth rates needed to get there may seem extreme, note that the applications that demand resources from telecom networks are also undergoing drastic change. Most importantly, the composition of traffic flows connected through the backbone is shifting. While communication networks have traditionally provided asymmetric paths between local users and remote computers, we believe network demand in the future will be increasingly machine-to-machine traffic, such as a handheld computer requesting an automatic download of flight times from an airline?s server. Mike O?Dell of UUNET has referred to this machine-to-machine traffic as the onslaught of ?silicon cockroaches.? Nonetheless, we view the transition to this new traffic pattern is very important to bandwidth growth, since a human at any one instance can only absorb so much data and can only use the Internet for so many hours a day, whereas these constraints obviously do not apply to computers. We believe new network applications in development will also add fuel to the fire. Level 3?s (LVLT $77-3/4) engineering group recently completed a study on the effects of running a ?tele-presence? application on its network where each node would have full-motion, 360-degree, high-definition video and high-fidelity audio. The study found that a single application of this service running uncompressed would require 14 Tbps of bandwidth. Considering that with Lucent's (LU $82-9/32) new AllWave fiber, there is a transmission window of 1,250 nanometer to 1,650 nanometer or a total of 400 nanometer, which, if you take out a room for wavelength division multiplexing (WDM) channel spacing, leaves 100 nanometer or 12.5 Thz. Furthermore, considering that it will be possible to do multilevel optical modulation per bit over the 12.5Thz, one effectively can transmit at 50 Tbps. Unfortunately, given that currently, distance is traded off for bandwidth in optical transmission and that an average optical span is 400 kilometer; network engineers believe a more realistic theoretical maximum is 20 Tbps transmitted over a 400 kilometer fiber pair. Thus, one instance of a tele-presence application would absorb 70% of theoretical network bandwidth. " We need next gen and we need it now.... Brian

To: Mighty Mizzou who wrote (13205)	2/3/2000 1:10:00 PM
From: telecomguy	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 21876

Hey MM, it looks like this article just confirms that the OC-48/OC-192 DWDM long-haul market is quickly moving from OC-48 to OC-192 and that LU is clinging onto it's 41% market share lead over NT but based on the growth rate, NT should surpass LU fairly soon if not now as I type this. LU will be hurting if they don't get the OC-192 market share back and their revenue shortfall will continue.......should be interesting to see what happens -- whether NT can continue to dominate OC-192 as they have a huge lead time advantage (1 year is a light-year long in terms of R&D lead in this business).

To: Mighty Mizzou who wrote (13205)	2/3/2000 3:19:00 PM
From: Techplayer	Respond to of 21876

Squawk Box with Joe Battipaglia Thursday?s guest host on Squawk Box remains bullish on the stock market. Joe Battipaglia, Chief Investment Officer at Gruntal, expects stocks to move higher, but warns there could be a correction at any time. He says only two things can knock this market down, inflation or a recession, neither of which he sees as a threat right now. Below are Battipaglia's four stock picks given to CNBC.com. Use the CNBC.com tools to further research his picks. Walt Disney {DIS} -- Well-positioned media property -- Its problems are largely behind it -- One of the cheapest media properties around Detailed Quote 1-Year Chart Company SnapshotQuarterly Earnings Analyst Ratings Message Boards Johnson & Johnson {JNJ} -- Has great global reach -- Strong cash-generating balance sheets Detailed Quote 1-Year Chart Company SnapshotQuarterly EarningsRecent EventsMessage Boards ANDRX {ADRX} -- Fast-growing generic drug company -- Sees strong sales potential for its generic hypertension and ulcer drugs -- Earnings should grow quickly -- Stock could double over next several years Detailed Quote 1-Year Chart Company SnapshotQuarterly Earnings Analyst RatingsMessage Boards Intel {INTC} -- Solid holding -- Calls Intel?s performance "extraordinary" Detailed Quote 1-Year Chart Company Snapshot Quarterly Earnings Analyst RatingsMessage Boards SDL {SDLI} -- Fiber-optic equipment company -- Competes with JDS Uniphase and E-Tek Dynamics -- Expects rapid consolidation in the industry -- Earnings potential will drive stock higher Detailed Quote 1-Year Chart Company Snapshot Quarterly Earnings Analyst RatingsMessage Boards Lucent Technologies {LU} -- Not put off by interruption of earnings -- Expects Lucent to fix its problems -- Sees strong fiber-optic business here Detailed Quote 1-Year Chart Company Snapshot Quarterly Earnings Analyst RatingsMessage Boards Chase Manhattan {CMB} -- Fed will finish its work soon, which should help financials Detailed Quote 1-Year Chart Company Snapshot Quarterly Earnings Analyst RatingsMessage Boards Merrill Lynch {MER} -- Moving into bank products -- Sees good earnings power -- Have built a solid global franchise Detailed Quote 1-Year Chart Company Snapshot Quarterly Earnings Analyst RatingsMessage Boards **Tune into Squawk Box weekdays at 7:00 a.m.