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To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (59664)	2/3/2000 1:34:00 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

OPEC compliance rose in January ! - now, why would they ease now ? << Weather News Thu, 03 Feb 2000, 1:22pm EST 2/3 5:50 OPEC Compliance With Oil-Output Agreements Rises, WSJ Reports By John Fraher London, Feb. 3 (Bloomberg) -- OPEC members' compliance with agreements to cut oil output rose in January to 90.1 percent from an adjusted 88 percent in December, the Wall Street Journal said, citing preliminary estimates made by Petrologists Ltd., a Geneva- based oil industry adviser. The ten members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries that agreed to cut their crude output produced 23.4 million barrels a day in January, down from an adjusted 23.5 million barrels a day in December. Total OPEC production in January was 25.7 million barrels a day, the WSJ said. The United Arab Emirates, OPEC's No. 5 oil producer, today joined Kuwait in calling for oil prices to stay at $25 a barrel this year, signaling exporters may have lifted their target oil price by more than 20 percent. >> Does that make any sense ? Comply even better than the month before - when you're thinking about easing/eliminating cuts ? NOT ! They aren't thinking about easing - they may be talking down the "heat" placed on them a bit here, but if they "were" desirous of "easing" - they would be signaling by weakening compliance and the "ususal suspects" would allready be leaking - cheating... The first thing to look for as an "early-warning" indicator of OPEC removing the cuts in March - is waning compliance; not tightening. Crude WILL see $30 and with so much of the market just simply not seeing the huge API drawdowns, the strong Global demand & growth, the low 1H 2000 Cap Ex Spending - especially from the Majors; and the market in general - simply not "getting it" here. 50:50 we see a spike to $40 imho - hell, we may avg $32-34 for a qtr, or so before this year is out !