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Pastimes : All Clowns Must Be Destroyed -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mike M2 who wrote (6601)	2/3/2000 2:42:00 PM
From: Lucretius	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42523

i thought that had already passed?

To: Mike M2 who wrote (6601)	2/3/2000 2:42:00 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Respond to of 42523

great ideas all, except that the market won't tank...:)

To: Mike M2 who wrote (6601)	2/3/2000 10:26:00 PM
From: yard_man	Respond to of 42523

Musta been asleep .. thought they already passed that ammendment.

To: Mike M2 who wrote (6601)	2/4/2000 8:25:00 AM
From: valueminded	Respond to of 42523

William: You got it wrong, only tech stocks go up <g> I read shillings book on deflation. An interesting read, but I disagree on some points. - Government spending is inflationary. If this were true, Japan would be experiencing very inflationary times with their spending. Yet they have among the lowest rates in the world. Does not reconcile with his position. - US government expenditures are declining. Again I do not believe this to be true. Rate of growth may have slowed, but overall, expenditures are climbing not declining. Also, since defense spending is declining as a portion of the expenditures, I would make the case that that is more inflationary. ie Defense spending(as inefficient as it may or may not be) has the possiblity of producing value in the commercial market whereas I question if thats true of most govt transfer payments - US money supply growth is slowing. I have a problem with Shillings assessment of that one. Money growth in 4th quarter of 99 was among greatest in history. Coupon passes are again being done daily. The Y2K money growth was soaked up and will not be removed from the system. Money growth outside the fed is huge. ie Stocks as substitutes for money. - According to book, oil would be at $10/barrel and falling. Not quite there yet. All that said, he does make a number of great points. Points which in my mind make the case for a serious recession coupled with inflation. I agree with the lack of pricing flexibility by manufacturers. I see a number of companies being priced out of existance which will reduce supply. In my opinion, it will be impossible to experience deflation without a market crash. There are just too many dollars out there. A market crash is tought to predict. But my guess is FED is more concerned with stocks than dollar strength or bond. That said, I think FEDs response to any serious market undertow will feed inflation (slash interest rates)