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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: KyrosL who wrote (38961)	2/3/2000 4:10:00 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Respond to of 99985

KL, i only take issue with the prospect of no more bond issues in the future...the basic premise that budget surpluses will persist is possibly flawed. that depends entirely on a continuation of the bull market and the strong economy, something that's far from ascertained imo. however, as Japan shows, once deflation rages, a government can issue bonds by the truckload and they will still be in a bull market.as long as the creditworthiness of the respective government isn't questioned that is. note that bond yields in Japan have only begun to creep back up as it became apparent that the Japanese government may have bitten off more than it can chew. while we're at it, i'm expecting the bond rally to be subject to a correction soon...sentiment has swung again to the other extreme of the spectrum. btw, i have a table of inflation/deflation stats dating back to the late 18th century somewhere...i'll try to post it here later. it shows that periods of inflation and deflation have occurred in a cyclical fashion over time, roughly corresponding to the various stages of the Kondratyev cycle. regards, hb