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Strategies & Market Trends : Technical analysis for shorts & longs -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Johnny Canuck who wrote (25058)	2/3/2000 5:49:00 PM
From: j g cordes	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 68216

Notice QCOM investor meeting Feb 17th and an opinion sent to me.. FWIW "4. RETHINKING THE QUALCOMM VALUATION By Kenneth A. Toudouze, CFA After listening to the Nokia (NOK) conference, we came away with several pieces of valuable information. One of these was the confidence of the CEO that Nokia will become No. 1 in CDMA handset manufacturing. The acknowledgment that Nokia wants to dominate CDMA handsets, coupled with Ericsson's (ERICY) resolve to gain 3% of additional market share (12-15%), bodes well for Qualcomm (QCOM). This also is a positive for Ericsson, because, as The StreetAdvisor mentioned February 1, it benefits from the infrastructure sales, each time CDMA is deployed. The decision by Unicom in China to license Qualcomm's CDMA technology will be a momentous one. The bigger picture question is how big that market is for Qualcomm. Unicom has indicated it intends to deploy a network with capacity of more than 10 million subscribers by year-end. This plan is probably optimistic, given the delayed agreement, but it could certainly happen by 2001. Assuming 10 million CDMA handsets are sold at $200 per unit in 2001, this is a $2 billion a year market opportunity, and Qualcomm will reap $40 million (2%) in royalty fees per year from China alone ($0.01 of earnings per share per quarter). Assuming Qualcomm can sell a few ASICs (chips) to handset manufacturers, it can profit from this as well. Qualcomm is scheduling an investor meeting on February 17th, which should also add spark to the stock. At the meeting, we would look for more information regarding the high data rate (HDR) initiatives and Internet access through wireless devices. In addition, we will look for more data regarding the Kyocera (KYO) deal and news that it is moving along faster than originally anticipated. Although we cannot get excited about the current valuation of Qualcomm, we admit there are excellent catalysts in front of the stock to make it go higher.

To: Johnny Canuck who wrote (25058)	2/4/2000 12:41:00 AM
From: shasta23	Respond to of 68216

Hi HARRY! I can only say "SHOCKING" how the NAZ whips up and down 10+% in a few days. Can hardly believe it and also don't know what makes the market rally here. Rising interest rates? and more to come? Scratching my head. The Dow could actually break out nicely here and then has some time to go to test it's top. Ed Downs - Clint recommended his site and i now read it every night - is bullish on the dow. Unfortunately he doesn't chart the NAZ as well. Here is the link if someone is interested: signalwatch.com I made my usual mistake again this week and sold too early. Just couldn't sit on my hands and left a lot of money on the table. Fortunately my wife isn't that interested in the markies and held onto held MERQ and SEBL which i bought for her close to the bottom. That should teach me something. I guess we will no go to test the all time high in the NAZ and then we see where we go from here. Didn't have time to look at charts since i had to go to my dayjob today(th-sat)but FFIV could be interesting. It's clearly in a downward channel but right now closer to the bottom than the top...so that could be an OK play to the top of the channel. Stefan