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Non-Tech : E*Trade (NYSE:ET) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sly_ who wrote (11435)	2/3/2000 10:20:00 PM
From: Dave Kahn	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 13953

I would be happy if it made it to 35 I dont understand the stock should be at 40 -45 ??? Dave

To: Sly_ who wrote (11435)	2/3/2000 10:21:00 PM
From: BWAC	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 13953

Lets try again on the convertibles. And think a little this time. Message 12754127 KM, Lets all talk Converitble Bonds for a second here. Two Questions with two Scenarios: 1.) Would you like to buy them yourself? I would. They pay around a 6% interest rate. They also convert to shares, if so chosen in the future, at around $23. What will EGRP the company be in 5 years? How many customers? How much revenue? What price? I suggest a good bit higher than $23. I'll be real conservative. Say $50 a some time, some point in before the bond option expires. Would you not almost kill to have the option to short EGRP at that time and point where it hits $50 and cover someday with options at $23? Trade the locked in profit short position around some? All the while collecting 6% interest? 2.) (This scenario is what everybody thinks is going to happen) You buy the convertible bonds, sell the stock short right now at 20, or 23, or 25???. Lock in that paltry gain above the $23 conversion price, or bet that you can trade a short position like hell to create a huge gain over time? All the while collecting 6% interest. Sell a 100% per year growing company at the yearly lows? Answer: Hell no. The bond buyers of course are in a win situation, either way. But they stand to win big and win the most by supporting scenario #1. Validated even more so by the fact that the price was driven down, which more importantly DROVE the conversion price down as well. ($23). IT WAS THE FALLING PRICE THAT MADE THE CONVERTIBLE BONDS A NO LOSE SITUATION for the buyer. (Which of course is why we can't participate in them.) So the bond holders now have a choice: 1.)Start locking in gains now and work hard to make a home run return, or 2.)sit, wait, participate, and patiently plot the point at which their return reaches the can't stand it no more level to short EGRP and lock in gains. It is high time for a little CLEAR, THOROUGH thinking to make a return. Analyze all the possible and probable scenarios.