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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: dennis michael patterson who wrote (39005)	2/3/2000 10:26:00 PM
From: bobby beara	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

>>>Was anyone on this Thread telling people to buy? No, everyone was telling us that we were going down. <<< Message 12725286 Message 12732624 come on butthead, i wan't some kudos -ggg- LG, said i could have some -gg- if you were on margin early in the week, it's a smart call to rein in the cattle herd here. b

To: dennis michael patterson who wrote (39005)	2/3/2000 10:28:00 PM
From: dclapp	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Dennis, Interesting and honest post -- as always! you said: >>... The proper advice would have been to check the 50 DMA on the big caps and see if these stocks bounced off support. uh..yeah. I've been doing a similar thing, as I hedge selected stocks in the QQQ against my overall QQQ short. I just buy the ones "bouncing off the line" and sell the spikes (a la LVLT a couple days ago). the Big Idea in the ongoing hedge/short play is that I'm long the "real stocks" -- intc, csco, coms, et al; and short the Fleabays :) in the index. It's been an interesting dance. To be honest, I'm more "playing with my money" than anything else (because I can, for one reason :) But, in doing it, I've been very aware of the money rotations in the QQQ -- and you're right...the money moves in at the MA "hits" and sells the spikes -- just like we learned in Stock Speculation 101 :-) Good luck!

To: dennis michael patterson who wrote (39005)	2/3/2000 10:47:00 PM
From: HairBall	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

dmp: Was anyone on this Thread telling people to buy? No, everyone was telling us that we were going down. WRONG! That is a little unfair. Some of us are not stock gurus and usually do not make our trades public nor do we give calls. At least I usually do not...<g> Ever once in a while I do jump in front of one of the trains and call a timely short on one or more of the big momentum stocks like QCOM, AMZN, YHOO or CMGI. Heck, anyone can call a long on those manias. But for the most part I do not feel right about telling folks when to buy and sell...I am no guru...<g> I have provided some charts from time to time, usually per request. You did not ask me for levels on CSCO until it had already bounced. The patterns on CSCO have been in place for some time. Personally, I don't buy the dips or sell the rallies or visa versa, I just follow my analysis. On occasion I am wrong, I take my loss quickly and move on...<g> Good trading... Regards, LG

To: dennis michael patterson who wrote (39005)	2/3/2000 11:09:00 PM
From: Carl van Rooyen	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

I'm sure everyone here is well aware of all the market numbers, but this little excerpt put a good arch on my old eyebrows. If I was out in my boat right now, which I'm most certainly not, I'd be heading for the closest shore. There's a storm brewing, and I think it's a good one. BWDIK, it'll probably blow out to sea... from tonight's street.com bulletin: Describing this morning's action, Warburg Dillon Read Treasury market strategist Mark Mahoney said: "It's just a very, very big panic right now." Investor demand for the newest 30-year Treasury bond, the one issued last August, with a 6.125% coupon and maturing in August 2029, was "an extraordinarily huge panic, comparable to the six-and-a-quarter of August '23 squeeze of 1993 and the nine-and-a-quarter of Feb. '16 squeeze of 1986," Mahoney said, referring to previous instances of investor frenzy to own particular bond issues. "People are selling off-the-runs to buy the bond, selling corporates to buy the bond, selling mortgages to buy the bond, overseas guys are buying the bond. We've got a pretty massive panic going on right now." The 1993 panic, like the current one, was triggered by cutbacks in the Treasury's auction schedule, Wrightson Associates chief economist Lou Crandall said. In May 1993, the Treasury reduced the number of 30-year bond auctions from four a year to three, and discontinued seven-year note issuance. The 1986 panic, Crandall said, happened when Japanese investors who owned a large chunk of the 30-year bond Mahoney named did not sell it and buy the next 30-year issue, the 7.25% coupon maturing in May 2016, as expected. That left dealers unable to cover their short positions in the February 2016 bond, Crandall said. Swap spreads, an indicator of willingness to own any kind of spread product -- corporate bonds, mortgage-backed securities, etc. -- moved out sharply again today, indicating increasing distaste for spread product. The bellwether 10-year swap spread was lately 96.50 basis points, up from 70 a week ago and the highest since September, which was the worst period for spread markets since the panic of October 1998. The fever to own the 30-year issue spread to the rest of the Treasury market when rumors started to spread that the big changes that have taken place over the last three weeks in the shape of the Treasury yield curve have resulted in trading losses of such magnitude that one or more large financial institutions is on the brink of collapse.

To: dennis michael patterson who wrote (39005)	2/3/2000 11:20:00 PM
From: Les H	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Actually, most of the opinions seemed to be looking for an early week bottom then a reversal. No one predicted an immediate run at the highs. Did you?