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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: lrrp who wrote (34033)	2/3/2000 11:36:00 PM
From: Ian@SI	Respond to of 70976

OT to Steve, I don't think my sale was very noteworthy or portends anything at all except that now CYMI will probably exhibit the Cape Canaveral pattern. If you want proof, check one of my last posts on the LSI thread. I believe I sold at about 28 not that long ago to pay off a margin loan. I also sold BRKS near 40. and that was a very short time ago. And my worst decision: I bought ALXN at about 32-33; immediately sold the Jan 35 Covered call for a premium of 1.50 and had the shares called away because I decided not to pay more than $10 to buy the calls back. ALXN is much more than 35 today. And finally, the driver for my CYMI sell was fully stated in the post on the CYMI thread. As you well know, it had absolutely nothing whatsoever to do with Industry, Sector or Company fundamentals or technicals. It dealt solely with my personal portfolio status. Are you suggesting that I'm a major bellwether; and thus, I shouldn't post any of my trades; so that people with hidden agendas are not able to use that information out of context? Ian. <just a little annoyed with your out of context post, but many thanks for mentioning me in the same post as an honourable mention of Cary Salsberg> its noteworthy that Ian Stromberg has recently sold his cymer; steve

To: lrrp who wrote (34033)	2/4/2000 8:21:00 AM
From: Lone Star	Respond to of 70976

One man's opinion, for what its worth. I believe Cary is way off, based upon the following. The high valuations the entire sector enjoys presently is due to the tangible visibility we have for 2000; hell, 2000 is in the bag excluding an exogenous macro-event ( gosh dern, don't I at least sound smart ). Backlogs extend out to Sept. or beyond already. The newest forecasts, being mulled over now, say 2001 is in the bag too. If this is ratified, everybody says "Yup", this raises the ceiling for price appreciation throughout this year. Market is always looking out 9-12 months. Now there are a lot of folks saying this could go on well beyond the 2-3 years, based on chip consumption forecasts for all the exploding new apps, so the job there is to test all the underlying assumptions as we proceed 'cuz any forecast beyond 2001 is just too far out. But, should it come to pass and you sell too soon and at the wrong time it may be hell trying to get back in But thats up to you "trader" guys to worry about.