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To: TigerPaw who wrote (153020)	2/4/2000 8:04:00 AM
From: GVTucker	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 176387

TP, RE: Do you see a scenario where stocks without earnings implode but the rest of the market recovers? Or is there enough linkage via margin debt and general GNP that a sever tankage in one rather large sector takes down the whole market for a long term (several year) resession? There's a lot of evidence out there that stock picking can insulate you. Most recently, when the biotech bubble collapsed in the early/mid 90's, the rest of the market was just fine. Similarly, when the tech stocks went into a true nuclear winter starting in 1983 (when valuations were just about as absurd as 'Net stocks are now), the rest of the market sprinted ahead. (Trivia note: how many people out there realize that INTC's total return from 1983-1989 was zero?) Finally, when the entire market was in one of the most extended bears ever in the 70's, the strong fundamentals of the energy industry generated outstanding returns. On the other side of the coin, the economy in general is much, MUCH more dependent on the equity markets now than it was in the historical periods I cited above. That worries me, too. My net equity exposure right now is 0, with an equal number of longs and shorts. (It's been that way for a couple of years now, though, so don't assign any immediacy based upon that exposure.)

To: TigerPaw who wrote (153020)	2/4/2000 10:28:00 AM
From: T.R.	Respond to of 176387

T.P....Personally I'm am keeping close to half of my investment dollars liquid. I don't have a preception of what the market is going to do, it is beyond anything I've seen. My feeling is by keeping a sizable amount on the sidelines I will be ready when a "good deal" comes up. It also will insulate me in the event there is a major correction (and again, allow me to pick up some very cheap stocks.) By doing this I realize I am not participating at the same speed many other investors are, that's okay with me. Besides, I am having fun picking up stocks like AMZN for a couple of days and then dumping them when they give me a few bucks. Meanwhile my long term investments are moving forward (with the exception of ONE that will remain nameless for now <dell>) All the sayings about "nothing goes up forever," "greed kills," "Pigs get fat, hogs get slaughtered," etc, etc, etc help keep me focused. If I was looking for specific stocks to hedge against a negative event I would look into those sectors/stocks that are financially strong enough to weather a nasty storm and have a product that is somewhat insulated against one as well. Hopefully we will continue in the mode we've been in for a LONG time, however, I have given a great deal of thought as to how the current investor would hold up compared to those who have been dealt huge blows in the past. I don't have positive feelings about that. With everything being accelerated in this world, especially the turn around time for investors, I think it would be very nasty. Again, these are only my thoughts, prefer to be wrong. Tom