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Gold/Mining/Energy : Canadian Oil & Gas Companies -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tommy D who wrote (7093)	2/4/2000 7:44:00 AM
From: GVTucker	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 24927

Tommy, RE: <>Time will tell but I am not sure why the action with BKP in the last few days compares to MEL and its horrible drop. Not disagreeing, I just don't see the connection. I'm the one that initially drew the connection. When MEL first began dropping way last September, it was soon accompanied by analyst downgrades that were based on pretty minor issues. The stock also dropped a lot more sharply than the information would seem to warrant. In addition, there were a couple of analysts that seemed to have a very good handle on this early in the drop; Tom Ebbern at Newcrest comes to mind right now. That's the only reason this feels a little similar. The production estimate cuts really aren't that large, and the analyst downgrades aren't that severe, yet the stock gets hit pretty hard. Note also that the volume was pretty light. If some sellers out there were actually able to find a buyer for their large blocks, the stock would have dropped even more. One other red flag that came up about 3 weeks ago; BKP is a delinquent filer of its 9 month financial statements for the September quarter. There is a big time vacuum of information right now, which adds a lot to the financial uncertainty. We haven't seen financial results for BKP for over 6 months now, and a lot can change in that period of time. BKP's silence is a little troubling. Finally, a couple of analysts seemed early on this deal, this time Andrew Hogg lowered BKP last week. Ebbern over at Newcrest cut BKP from a strong buy to a buy a while ago (back in Oct, IIRC). Again, in and of themselves they sound pretty innocuous, but after seeing MEL melt down, I guess I'm a little gun shy. I bailed a couple of weeks ago, and right now BKP does indeed look tempting. I resisted the temptation with MEL, thank goodness, and I'm trying to avoid any problems in the portfolio.