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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: chaz who wrote (17153)	2/4/2000 9:13:00 AM
From: Bruce Brown	Respond to of 54805

Since I'm sure Frank would rather hit his high spin balata ball using a one iron off the tee of a tightly tree-lined 390 yard par 4 than buy any Godzilla stocks, I'll answer that question. Look at the business models of Yahoo!, eBay and AOL (pre merger version) as examples. Godzillas that have all been making money. The option effect (what the company might become in the future rather than what it is today) certainly has applied to all of them and is indeed one of the Icarus Scoring criteria that we have discussed on the eWorld thread and is discussed in chapter 12 of the RM. The option effect has indeed been playing out in front of our eyes over the past 18 months. However, I see the business models of these three as much different than Amazon.com's business model in its current state. Couple that with the amount of capital that has been thrown at what internet stocks there are available and you can get the impression that the world is out watering their tulips. However, if one really digs through all of the stocks available and the various business models, there are a basket of powerhouses out there that have established International presence and have everything in place. In other words - it's their Godzilla market to lose. Will their competitive advantage period collapse because they are making money? I don't understand the question because the three I mentioned are making money. Amazon is one stock that will be moving into the transition of making money this year. What happened to Yahoo!, eBay and AOL when they made this transition to turning a profit? siliconinvestor.com Can you see on that chart what happened to AOL, Yahoo! and eBay as they made the transition from not making a profit to making a profit? The same situation could be applied to various B2B startups like Commerce One and Ariba and will be interesting to watch over the next couple of years. The option effect is already taking place on a weekly basis in the B2B space as we have an amazing amount of partnerships forming and the highway being paved for the future. BB