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Strategies & Market Trends : Rande Is . . . HOME -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: shadowman who wrote (19904)	2/4/2000 11:14:00 AM
From: Rande Is	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 57584

An interesting post on LPTHA. . . This was first posted on Yahoo. . .so take it with a grain of salt. . . original author is: Rodeoswing (M/CA / TX) 2/1/00 12:18 am Msg: 10709 of 11048 Per a JDS Uniphase target insider from a conversation in late 99, "The need for fundamental components is so great that startups and second rate small suppliers will be swamped with orders; all that matters is that they can deliver something." Whether LightPath components are the best or not, or whether LPTH stumbles on component deliverable dates or not, isn't really an issue. The issue is can they deliver something this year that works okay. I think they can from talking to engineers familiar with the material. Gradium is not the answer to industry prayers. Yes, in narrow wavelength laser applications it can eliminate common spherical aberrations that normally require correction from additional elements or more complex lens surfaces. But although alternate technologies are available, the thing that matters is that these lenses do work in telecom applications and CAN be made and delivered to meet rapidly increasing demand. At Photonics West, the LightPath booth was completely absent of hype. There was no "buzz" around the floor about Gradium because it's been around for a long time, but it has not been positioned as a telecom component material in the past. HOWEVER the booth was oddly busy each and every day during all show hours, which can't be said for many of the exhibitors that were there. In discussions with their people, it is clear the excitement is not just about Gradium, which will generate revenue in the telecom sector, but about new technology for optical switching products that have not been talked about. LPTH has funding and is populating a development facility to pursue next generation technology. This reminds me of a separate conversation with OCLI in mid '99 back when it was an "overpriced" stock at $85/share. OCLI was not thought of in the industry as a "telecom" stock. They were a stodgy slow-moving hard-to-deal with bunch of thin film coaters who re-organized management regularly, stumbled onto color changing pigments, and were also trying to expand their polymer optics and optical sub-assembly businesses. BUT they had this little mechanical mirror add-drop switch based on conventional technology that for some reason they just couldn't make enough of even though they knew it wasn't state-of-the-art technology. They were oddly quiet about this telecom component and wouldn't return my calls having anything to do with telecom applications. Since then the importance of these components has become well known and OCLI was acquired by Uniphase and now trades around $400/sh. I'm not a day trader and don't understand the day-to-day strategies of investing, but I've been in the optics industry for 8 years: LPTH is in a unique position: It's public, it hasn't been "noticed" yet, it has product in qualification that it can make and ship if ordered, it has some future technology and some funding to pursue development. The guys I've met demonstrated a quiet but definate understanding of the need to position LPTH as a telecom technology company and component supplier...yet there was no hype. Their sales guys know where they need to be spending their time in upcoming quarters--so I'm throwing a little of my hard earned money at them.