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Strategies & Market Trends : Rande Is . . . HOME -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Rande Is who wrote (19935)	2/4/2000 12:43:00 PM
From: Steven Finkel	Respond to of 57584

more arba news. Looks very promising, I think I'm going in:-- SG Cowen reiterates STRONG BUY; believes Ariba could soon sign a deal with a Fortune 10 company valued in the hundreds of millions; deal could include a distribution partnership. Edit; Didn't take long for NATS to come back, did it?

To: Rande Is who wrote (19935)	2/4/2000 1:24:00 PM
From: Rande Is	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 57584

MEDIA CONGLOMERATES: . . . . . .Choosing Partners. . . Today, Sony announced it is in talks to buy a major U.S. Network. There are only so many of those that qualify. Lets look at the possibilities one-by-one. . . GE has a 466B market cap, while Sony has 110B U.S. . . and it is highly doubtful that GE would sell NBC, which is its crown jewel. I believe that MSFT and GE will strike a major deal or even form a super-merger that would partner Microsoft Networks with NBC TV, while also partnering GE's Home division with Bill Gate's latest passion. . .smart homes. . .where you can control all home devices via the net. . . [Downside: hackers can turn your toaster on until it burns up and starts your house on fire?] I see GE as not a possibility. USA Networks [too small a fish] . . . NWS / Fox is a possibility, but the move is not like AOL/TWX. . .it doesn't give Sony a leading American ISP. . . nor does it strengthen Sony's movie biz. So I don't like this one either. CBS is fairly obvious, because it just sits there as the only original U.S. TV network without a partner. . . . .now the potential Viacom/CBS Deal could make CBS more attractive to Sony, since Viacom has a tremendous TV/movie catalog. But once more, this deal does not give Sony a leading American ISP. Also, CBS has been lagging the TV market and struggling to find footing. So while this deal is a possibility, I don't think it is a move that a proud company like Sony would make. DIS/ABC is far less obvious, yet makes the most sense. Think about it. The most respected consumer electronics company in the world, partnering the leading consumer entertainment company in the world. And what else is brought to this deal? Well, Disney has a fabulous movie and music catalog to add to Sony's leadership in these industries. . .ABC and ESPN are leaders in the TV world . . . giving Sony entry into a new marketplace. . .Not to mention the avenues that would open in Japan for these entertainment giants. . . .Infoseek/Go Network would provide Sony with a leading American ISP. . . which is beautifully matched with the broadband equipment that Sony will be building into their TV sets [nobody likes the looks of a set-top box]. . . and Disney has perhaps the most valuable marketing network for the under 18 crowd in the world. . .where Sony could market its vast selection of personal entertainment devices. And don't forget the Sony Playstation II! Couple that with Disney characters and you instantly win the hearts of every child! . . .[regardless of any future competition that might arise.] Sony would certainly sell their personal devices in Disney themeparks. . . and consider this. . . .Sony could bring an element of future-tech to the themeparks, which may be enough to wake them up. There is probably no hope for Eurodisney, but the one in Asia makes a fantastic platform for showcasing the latest Sony goods. . . we are talking flagship showcasing of Sony products and future technologies, via these amusement parks. . . . and frankly, I would think the Sony executives would simply adore their yearly vacations at Disney properties. This marriage makes sense to me in every way. Disney has a market cap of 77B, which would make it a merger in a similar fashion to TWX/AOL. . . it could be an acquisition, but it would be a very expensive one. There is a possibility that DIS will sell ABC/ESPN, etc. to Sony. Disney has not been able to do much with the network, nor has it helped raise shareholder value much. . .so this is another possibility. I bought some Disney today on spec of this possibility. . .and on growing momentum in Disney. Speaking of which, both of these companies shared a very sharp spike at the open of trading on January 10. .. . . which would be just about right for some insiders to jump in. On the other hand, CBS and FOX both had similar spikes on January 10. Now what about other partners. . . Here is how I see it shaping up. . . 6 Super Media Conglomerates AOL + TWX MSFT + GE [NBC] Sony + Disney + ABC Bertelsmann + EMI + VO [Universal] CBS + Viacom + Yahoo Liberty Media + Newscorp + FOX + TVGIA + LQID [funded by A.T. & T.] This would leave orphans: USAI, MSPG, LCOS, etc. I would love to hear other views on this topic. Rande Is