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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dr. Id who wrote (17189)	2/4/2000 2:39:00 PM
From: Bruce Brown	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

Why do we keep searching? Because of new technology adoption life cycles that just might create discontinuous innovations. The now 19 year old PC technology adoption life cycle won't take us all to purgatory over the next 20 years in the same way younger ones like networking, wireless and next generation networks have more potential to do for us going forward. Hence my post of the link to the next generation networks life cycle set up by one of the book's authors - Paul Johnson. There are some interesting discontinuous innovations coming out of that cycle that are juicy grounds for gorilla gamers. BB

To: Dr. Id who wrote (17189)	2/4/2000 2:58:00 PM
From: William	Respond to of 54805

JDB: While you're checking this out, you may want to ask Jill (post 17166) why she is courting another (maybe) King when King JDSU has been with us for most of our history here. Looking forward to your research report. William

To: Dr. Id who wrote (17189)	2/4/2000 3:30:00 PM
From: LindyBill	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

RE: Search for new companies Look at Lindy...he was monogomous with Q for a year, and now look at him! He's in bed with 30 companies! Hey, I go through 10 to 15 partners on the dance floor every night! :0) We want to catch new Gorilla's and Kings on the front part of their Bell Curve, JDB. That is the most profitable time to be in them. When they are growing from, say 5 Billion to 50 Billion in Market Cap. Then they slow down. Q is a great example.

To: Dr. Id who wrote (17189)	2/4/2000 3:52:00 PM
From: Boa Babe	Respond to of 54805

Since a languishing market is almost closed for the weekend I'll take a stab at an answer: Women like candy and flowers from lots of kings and princes....there's no commitment here. Men like the thrill of the chase. I see no conflict, just some good old-fashioned fun. No one gets hurt unless they venture too far out of the GG jungle <flipping quickly through the RFM to see what the authors had to say about "falling in love" with a company> All this talk about gorilla collisions just plays right into a female's plan - get 'em fighting over you and wait to kiss the winner! I LOVE the stock market! (How much do I owe you for this visit, doc?) <g> Kay

To: Dr. Id who wrote (17189)	2/4/2000 5:05:00 PM
From: John Stichnoth	Respond to of 54805

re: Hunting for Adolescents I see you've gotten responses already, while I was off picking up the kids, etc. But, I'll post my answer anyway-- We want to catch the Gorillas while they are growing from children to adulthood. That is when they really start to put some muscle on their bones. A table of Pongoids in their various states: Start of Year Ago Current Zacks 5 Years Tornado MC Mkt Cap Mkt Cap ------------- -------- ------- --------- ibm ? ? 175.7Bn 211.1Bn 12.7% intc 7/86 2.7Bn 227.8Bn 348.1Bn 19.7% msft 3/86 1.0Bn 410.2Bn 536.2Bn 24.5% csco 1/90 .6Bn 196.5Bn 403.1Bn 29.7% qcom 8/98 1.7Bn 5.4Bn 98.6Bn 34.9% jdsu 11/98 3.9Bn 5.0Bn 61.9Bn 47 % As growth rates start to slow, growth in market cap--and therefore share price--starts to slow. There was a time to hold IBM as the growth stock. That mantle then passed to Wintel. Then Cisco. In 1999 the places to be were qcom and jdsu. And, going forward, in terms of "confirmed" Gorillas or Kings, csco, qcom and jdsu are the places to be. Remember that downside surprises are less likely during the tornado, and upside surprises are more likely. Contrast IBM's nasty surprises a few years ago, as it suddenly became clear that IBM was no longer a growth stock. Subsequently, we have seen Intel and Microsoft handle expectations so they "always" make their number. Slightly less "mature" Cisco similarly always beats the number by a penny, and has not had to have as heavy a hand in giving guidance tot he analysts. For QCOM and JDSU, the analysts are playing catch-up. Since we see a practical limit on market cap for any of our Gorillas (say at $400 Bn in today's dollars), then QCOM last year moved 1/4 of the way from its "childhood" mkt cap to its silverback cap. It will still quadruple before it slows down and begins acting the part of the young adult, like Cisco. JDSU has moved 15% of the way, and still can sextuple before it begins to act like Cisco. (And, sextupling is very good!) Of course, those numbers are order of magnitude--and presume that each Gorilla's ultimate market is of equivalent size and profitability. (Which they aren't, but looking that far ahead there's no way of knowing how big the markets will become). The exercise is to find next year's new pubescent gorilla. Not just doubles in price. 10-baggers in a year, and 100-baggers in a decade. At least, that's what I'm looking for. Best, John

To: Dr. Id who wrote (17189)	2/4/2000 5:13:00 PM
From: fish	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

JDB, How many of those still searching for another gorilla are SCUBA divers? A lot are golfers and there's at least one dancer.

To: Dr. Id who wrote (17189)	2/4/2000 5:51:00 PM
From: tekboy	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 54805

<<It does seem that investments in 4 or 5 of these already IDENTIFIED gorillas will provide a very comfortable retirement. So why do we keep searching?>> Thucydides (the original, not ours) said that nations go to war for three reasons: fear, interest, and honor. Same motivations apply here. The first reason we keep searching is out of fear that one of our gorillas might stumble while rampaging through the forest. Anything can happen anytime, of course, and we might need an escape hatch quickly. Also, some here are not comfortable being so concentrated, and like to diversify as much as possible within the pongid universe. The second reason we keep searching is out of interest, in the hope of finding that Holy Grail, the gorilla just emerging from the mist. Any latecomer who won't admit to being jealous of the people who got into Q during, say, February and March last year is lying, and we all want to get on the next bus just as it is leaving the station. Remember, the three valid reasons a LTB&Her has for selling a stock are 1) need to raise cash for the real world; 2) the story changes; and 3) some other investment looks even more attractive. A spanking new gorilla in an incredibly violent tornado might be an even better investment than any we currently have, so it's worth searching for. The thread started out with the silverbacks, after all, and only adopted Q a couple of months in. Something else could come along (GMST?) that might be even better... The third reason we keep searching is a quest for honor. Those who take part in Project Hunt demonstrate their skills in front of their peers, earning plaudits and wonder from the crowd and perhaps a place in the pantheon. They also give back something to those who have helped them, a truly honorable deed. All three are very good reasons to keep the Hunt going, it seems to me. tekboy/Ares@nottomentionreasonstoreadThucydides.com