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Technology Stocks : Softbank Group Corp -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: badon518 who wrote (3692)	2/4/2000 10:24:00 PM
From: Seeker of Truth	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 6020

Here's my guess on your scenario. In Japanese households where the man works in a typical company, the end of December and the end of June are the times when the semiannual bonuses come in. So look for a sharp rise in early Jan. or early July, if the "man on the street" is buying the funds that buy 9984. If you don't see such a sharp rise, then either the fund managers are more sophisticated than I believe or the man on the street simply is not jumping into the market. I don't know anything that would suggest that April has any meaning. The post office is open to a long term deposit at any time, AFAIK. Maybe Edwin has a more useful opinion. Almost all of my friends in Japan had the experience of dropping their conservatism and plunging in, at the top of the market, cheered on by the obviously objective brokers. They still feel the pain, ten years later. They are fairly surely not going to invest heavily, that is, not at first ...

To: badon518 who wrote (3692)	2/5/2000 12:18:00 PM
From: Edwin S. Fujinaka	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 6020

I tend to agree that Japanese retail investors will be more conservative than American investors. Remember that many were burned by their investing experience and the pain has lasted for a pretty long time. This is quite different than a crash such as occurred in the US in October of 1987. The market recovered pretty quickly so there wasn't this lingering pain. The minimal return on postal savings (less than 1% for many) and near zero for others will be impossible to maintain and this money should come into the equities market. Mutual funds bearing highly respected names may be the most popular investment vehicle. I think these funds are already investing in Softbank and will proliferate. As their numbers increase, the professionals managing the funds will focus on the premier stocks to be core holdings in their portfolios. Softbank will have to part of every agressive fund manager's core portfolio. The super agressive fund managers will also be buying into the Softbank spinoff ipos, thus boosting Softbank's portfolio of held stock. We are going to see a circle (which I won't characterize as vicious <G>) that will bootstrap Softbank upward into the near term future. I can see this extending into the future for an extended time beyond just the year 2000. The "little guy" retail investor may have a hard time buying into Softbank directly at these price levels. How many of us here would have bought in initially if it was going to take $133,000 to open?