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To: Roebear who wrote (59819)	2/4/2000 8:47:00 PM
From: BigBull	Respond to of 95453

Roebear, OK the time frame for the US stock market to peak is 5 to 7 years, after that - the deluge. The target for the Dow based on US births alone was somewhere around 10,000 in the same time frame. The joker in the deck, that raises the price target commensurately to the "ludicrous" targets just posted was the MASSIVE immigration wave that took place in the US during the Seventies and Eighties. Most of those individuals were in their late twenties to early thirties and are now in their peak spending years. Most birth cycles for Europe, and Asia are lagged due to the fact that the US was victorious in WW II and it's baby boom started earlier. Yes even Germany had one. Japan's was delayed considerably, you know - Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Japan will limp along for the next 10 to 15 years while the rest of Asia storms past them. According to the model the best time to invest in Japanese equities will be sometime when the US is well into our depression. The US is now in the very strongest part of it's spending wave cycle. I believe the strength of the US stock market will surprise many. BTW I believe Don Wolanchuk is very much aware of this cycle and it has allowed him to come up with the correct counts, when other E-Wavers were predicting a deflationary depression that never took place. I am somewhat at odds with Wolanchuk on the extent and magnitude of the inflationary aspect of the final phases of this grand cycle, but looking at the charts of Crude, Lumber, CRB, Plat/Palladium, Nickel, etc. I am becoming more of a believer. I still can't swallow $800 gold though. Well, that's more than enough from me today. Bull