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Biotech / Medical : World Heart Corp - WHRT and TSE/WHT -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Ducks who wrote (358)2/5/2000 7:38:00 AM
From: the Chief  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 500
 
My understanding is that they will announce the "calf trials" within two weeks, if not before.

This is why the "math" no longer works. Two weeks from now is Middle Feb. The implants are staggered a week apart and two are done a week, one in the US and one in Canada. Even using a slide rule it tells me that the trials would be "lucky to be finished by "END of Q2". Then theres that little issue where you need Health Canada (HC) approval before you can do human trials. HC is NOT a rubber stamp, they review all the data before issuing an approval. Even fast-tracking is not "fast" in Canada. IMHO allow 3-5 weeks for HC Canada review...minimum. Because WHT is not able to predict the final date for HC approval, an appropriate candidate could deteriorate during the wait they will not be able to pick a candidate before the HC approval. ......yada yada yada!

My estimate is Q4 this year...if it happens before I will be pleasantly surprised.

the Chief



To: Ducks who wrote (358)2/5/2000 10:12:00 AM
From: Dan Hamilton  Respond to of 500
 
Ducks, you asked for my opinion - here it is.

I continue to believe in the long term potential of the HeartSaver VAD, and everyone on this thread knows I have been long on the stock for years.

However, there still exists considerable risk and uncertainty in World Heart's ability to deliver this technology on a timely basis, if at all. (Just reread Mindshare's excellent posts on this thread.) That is why the market has discounted the stock so far.

I believe the battery problem last year provided an opportunity to delay the schedule while they also sorted out a number of issues unrelated to the battery. Total delay 6 months. Not surprising when you consider the magnitude of the challenge of perfecting this technology. Others have spent hundreds of millions and failed.

So here we are on February 5.

Merrill Lynch issues a strong buy on the stock. Great news for all shareholders, but it does not change the company or its product one iota.

This is followed by an announcement after market close that they have lost the first round of a lawsuit to protect their TET technology. As I said before, probably this in itself is not a big deal and doesn't hinder them at all in continuing to develop the HeartSaver. But it does potentially mean they have lost one PROPRIETARY advantage over competitors. With further delays in the development schedule it means other competitors have an improved chance to catch up.

Which brings us to the calf trials. The company is in a position where it has an obligation to shareholders to disclose material changes. This is made even more neccessary by the timing on the Merrill recommendation. World Heart has previously stated the first human implant will occur in 2Q 2000. We can all "do the math", so we know it will not happen in 2Q 2000. When will the company announce this? I expect soon; very soon.

Again, delays are to be expected in this kind of development project. However, so are ups and downs in the stock price as the market digests each new piece of information.

I lightened my position on Friday with the expectation there will be a downtick following the news. I plan to buy again once it becomes clear what the reasons are for the delay, and what is the new (projected) timeline.

I'm not a trader by nature either, but I hate to leave money on the table.

BWDIK, IMHO yada yada...




To: Ducks who wrote (358)2/5/2000 10:15:00 AM
From: Steve G.  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 500
 
I'm not positive, but I believe the trial verdict was out during trading hours. In any event, WHT was seeking only $8 million in damages, this is chump change in the long run. I think part of this is to make a point to competetors that WHT will aggressively defend their technology.

As for selling and buying in lower, the risk is you miss the big move up, while the reward is maybe you gain a couple of dollars.

Look, Merrill is not going to issue a buy rating on World Heart unless things are looking very good. Chances are Merrill knows something the rest of us don't.