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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: LindyBill who wrote (17236)	2/5/2000 2:34:00 PM
From: Bruce Brown	Respond to of 54805

RE: Cisco, AVNX Yes, Lindy. Not bad for an IPO priced at $36 to rocket up to $170 or whatever on kickoff day. We need to be playing golf with brokers and smoking some Cuban cigars to get action like that. Keep in mind that next generation networks involves copper, fiber, cable, satellite, wireless and hey - maybe a string with a tin can on each end for the low ball stuff. It's all going to win. In terms of what Cisco's position on the curve is with fiber/optical and routers needed for that type of a solution, I think that some of the other younger upstarts offer great competition as well as Lucent, Nortel, Level 3, Corning and others in fiber. I will admit that outside of FDDI, I don't know exactly what all the Cisco products do. I'm trying to learn though. Therefore, somebody else will have to address Cisco's current situation in optical fiber as well as the prospects of what it will become. The most prominent areas that Cisco's products address are: Cable Cisco IOS Software DSL Integrated Access IP & ATM Open Packet Telephony Open Programmable Switching Optical Internetworking Remote Access Wireless DSL certainly hasn't left Cisco in the dust as they are a major player in the equipment with the following: DSL CPE DSL Access Concentrators DSL Aggregation DSL Network Management The Redback agnostic product (happy to serve fiber, DSL, cable and the string with the tin cans on the end) is a real threat and has a solid foot in the business. Juniper has some great products as well. There are also others. These two have caught the majority of my interest, but there are chips as well from companies like Broadcom, Conexant, PMC Sierra, LSI Logic and many others that cover the full gamut of broadband. Cisco has already been shopping and telegraphed to the investment community that 2000 would be a big shopping year for them. Certainly, most of us own shares in this wonderful company, but I don't think it is two-timing to add some basket approach members that covers areas outside of Cisco's reign. We're in it to make money and there is a tornado going on - so although Cisco is one of my top holdings, I like the prospects of some others to add/benefit/boost or whatever my returns. Disclaimer that for the risk averse who prefer to only hold confirmed gorillas, this basket strategy is more for the tornado action seeker within the guidelines of the manual's discussion on buying baskets of stocks. I can't say that I've been unhappy with Cisco's appreciation as of late though.... How can one play such an expansive space without diversifying beyond 5, 10 or 15 stocks? If we take a look at Gilder's report the list grows. However, project hunt is helping us narrow down some of the companies on that list and their competition to find a possible basket most closely tied to a gorilla game. I guess the vastness of the space due to fiber, DSL, cable and wireless - four distinct areas of broadband that will all most likely survive - it's hard to own just a few stocks to capture it all. I'm really wandering around in this post, thinking out loud. Regardless, Lindy - your purchase of Cisco was a solid one. I wouldn't dare let go of my shares and consider it a must have investment. BB