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Politics : Ask Michael Burke -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Earlie who wrote (75250)	2/5/2000 11:18:00 AM
From: Don Lloyd	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 132070

Earlie - [[...The Euro, while not yet "seasoned" will very soon be accepted as an alternative and much better reserve currency (better primarily because it isn't carrying the massive debt baggage that weighs down the U.S. buck)...]] I have severe doubts about this. Economies (and governments)which are functionally socialist can survive and even seem to thrive as long as a substantial free market exists elsewhere to set competitive prices. Without the existence of such an opportunity for parasitism, and for the extortion of multinationals, continental Europe is an economic house of cards. While the Euro can easily be oversold at any particular point in time, its fundamental backing is nothing more than a questionable promise of 15% gold support. The degree of political and economic reform required in Europe is beyond any hope of realization short of war and political and economic collapse. In the intermediate and long run, US government and consumer debt, and the current account deficit, all pale in comparison with the unfunded liabilities of the entitlement programs as the US moves deliberately along the trail blazed by Europe over the last century and a half. Regards, Don

To: Earlie who wrote (75250)	2/5/2000 11:58:00 AM
From: Skeeter Bug	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 132070

earlie, many of these things have been true for some time. in a rational market, they make differences. in an irrational market, it is hard to predict what will happen when knuckleheads are given more and more rope... btw, i will be 100% cash before the election... just in case. if these markets continue for a little while longer then i will be almost all cash very, very shortly. did you hear the empty suit (and head!) analysts reason why techs should go up in an interest rate rising environment? "they will be the least impacted." iow, they will be negatively impacted, but less so than other companies (supposedly). what do folks do? they try and double the tech prices of tech stocks, what else? dumb da dumb dumb...

To: Earlie who wrote (75250)	2/5/2000 2:36:00 PM
From: valueminded	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 132070

Earlie: Your responce doesnt consider the reality (current) that they (Japan, emerging markets etc) believe they need us more than we need them. Until that belief changes, rate relief will be effective because it will be coordinated with our trading partners. In my opinion, the markets will turn when the american consumer has had his fill and no longer buys with impunity. Why doesnt Japan want a strong yen? (Its because they are not consuming and thus must sell exports overseas (which means US) so they will do whatever it takes to weaken the yen against the dollar. When the US consumer reduces his consumption or our trading partners pick up, I think the dollar gets hit hard. When that happens, there is no reason to support the dollar & we get inflation in our imported goods along with at least a US recession. By allowing rates to exist artificially low, AG is creating the "liquidity trap" whether he knows it or not because he is satiating consumption. (my opinion)