Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gottfried who wrote (59846)	2/6/2000 3:35:00 PM
From: Mark Adams	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 95453

It appears to me that the dayrate graph tells a new story. The high dayrates of 96-97, supporting peak OSX prices and earnings, appear an abberation and potentially excess investment in reserve development. If this is the case, then 'historically normal' day rates have returned. Earnings going forward may be as simple as the current run rate x 4, far below that which supported the historic highs seen in 97. Except for NorthSea Income, which could have another 35-50% decline to face. The longer term rigcount vs oil price shows rig counts can/will ignore short term spikes (1991), and possibly an improvement in drilling efficiency. The latter is speculation that same number of rigs able to keep pace with reserve development due to technology improvements such as 3D seismic and horiz drilling. I appreciate the effort in bringing this info forth. The dayrate graph in particular certainly modifies my view of where we are at, and where we may be 6-12 months out. Referenced links, supplied by Gottfried simmonsco-intl.com wtrg.com

To: Gottfried who wrote (59846)	2/6/2000 4:47:00 PM
From: Crimson Ghost	Respond to of 95453

Oil Exporters Take Full Time for Decision REUTERS INDEX \| INTERNATIONAL \| BUSINESS \| TECHNOLOGY Filed at 3:29 p.m. ET By Reuters LONDON (Reuters) - Leading oil producers are not yet decided on what policy to adopt when a year-long agreement on output limits expires next month, a Gulf source said on Sunday. While concerned that the international oil market is not left to face a shortage, producers are determined not to make a mistake when deciding whether or not to change the pact which has pushed oil prices to their highest since the Gulf War. ``We want to make sure the market does not face shortage or be undersupplied,' said the Gulf source, who is familiar with the policy of leading OPEC producer Saudi Arabia. ``But we are not going to hurry this decision. We have another six weeks or so to go. We don't want to base a decision on false information.' The Gulf official said producers wanted to have the fullest possible facts at their disposal on supply and demand, inventory levels and pricing patterns before deciding policy. ``The process of collective dialogue among producers will continue,' he said. Rhetoric among leading oil producers has softened since oil prices set new nine-year highs in recent weeks, prompting complaints from the governments of major consuming countries like the United States. In mid-January the influential oil ministers of Saudi Arabia and Venezuela said they were content with market conditions that priced North Sea Brent at $25 and U.S. light crude at $26.50. The market immediately braced itself for an extension of the policy to withdraw 4.3 million bpd of OPEC oil and additional export limits by non-OPEC Mexico. Brent has since risen to $27 and U.S. crude on the New York Mercantile Exchange to nearly $29 and there appears to be no excess left in the West's petroleum inventories. Last week data from the United States showed commercial crude inventories at the lowest level since the 1970s -- 281 million barrels versus 333 million this time last year. PRODUCERS DEFEND $25 U.S. OIL Although prices now are $4 higher than the $25 U.S. oil price that producers have said they are content with, OPEC ministers remain concerned that by pumping more oil they could trigger a swift collapse in prices. Several have said they expect prices to drift lower again once U.S. winter demand has eased. Some oil dealers are expecting another meeting of the key policy makers OPEC's Saudi Arabia and Venezuela and non-OPEC Mexico before the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries holds its conference on March 27 in Vienna. The Gulf official said he could not rule out the possibility of such talks -- the three ministers have been in close contact by telephone and have held bilateral meetings over the past year. If the three decide there is no danger of a sharp price slide, that inventories are low enough and the supply-demand outlook favorable they will have to convince others in OPEC to support an easing of output limits. OPEC price hawks like Kuwait, Libya, Algeria and Iran are keen that policy be left unchanged at least for another six months until the end of September. Ask questions and give answers about Personal Finance, Entrepreneurs, and more. Join Abuzz, new from The New York Times. Home \| Site Index \| Site Search \| Forums \| Archives \| Marketplace Quick News \| Page One Plus \| International \| National/N.Y. \| Business \| Technology \| Science \| Sports \| Weather \| Editorial \| Op-Ed \| Arts \| Automobiles \| Books \| Diversions \| Job Market \| Real Estate \| Travel Help/Feedback \| Classifieds \| Services \| New York Today Copyright 2000 The New York Times Company Copyright 2000 Reuters Limited. All rights reserved. Republication or redistribution of Reuters content, i