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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: bobby beara who wrote (39277)	2/5/2000 4:38:00 PM
From: donald sew	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

Bobby, >>>> the xci, nwx and sox are all at new highs, as yet we haven't seen a reversal, but i believe it could come at anytime, i would be hesitant to bet too much on the short side until some kind of reversal stick is in place. <<<< I agree with that philosophy, but why short the HiTECHs until there is a topping pattern. Per the INDEX UPDATE I am more focused on the weakness in the DOW, since that has the pennant that should resolve in a few days. From a standpoint of playing option puts, I realise that much talk is concentrated on shorting the HiTECHs. Why not play PUTS on the DOW which has the weakness right now. Keep in mind that PUTS on DOW STOCKs are sometimes alot cheaper than HiTECH PUTS. Yes the NAZ stocks can drop alot more but since the PUTS on DOW stocks could be cheaper, it may average out. seeya

To: bobby beara who wrote (39277)	2/5/2000 8:12:00 PM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

BB, what is your take on IBM around 112 now ?(or $224 pre-split) Why?? I just reread some of the remarks I made on the Chicken Page in May 1999 May 15, 1999 - Most recent example of irrational stock buying is IBM. Louis Gerstner of IBM started touting his company as an Internet play - net result the stock went from $220 to $245 for no other reason than speculation. IBM's market capitalization grew by $25 billion just for a nice story and prep talk ?? - there were no new financial facts or better earnings prediction JUST SPECULATION!! (it was above $270 later) Those $25 billion in added valuation can account for several countries GDP or about 5 to 6 weeks of money flow into the US mutual funds. To make some sense of the irrational market behavior - Poland with a population of 38 million has a yearly budget of $34 billion and national debt of $43 billion. Austria with a $21,000 per capita GDP has a national debt of $30 billion similar to Belgium national debt of $31 billion and Denmark's national debt of of $44 billion (sources the CIA World Fact Book). Does their government "prep talk" eliminate their outstanding debt in two days??? Well I do not think so. Haim

To: bobby beara who wrote (39277)	2/6/2000 2:48:00 AM
From: Michael Watkins	Respond to of 99985

Bobby, With so many test of tops and break outs on thursday/friday in leading tech stocks and certain indicies, it is indeed a critical time to be watching for reversal. A top has to start somewhere ;) The SOX strikes me as being the last general to fall and I am watching it and its components carefully. SOX and telecom stocks - BCE and Nortel have powered Canada's TSE to incredible new highs -- but like the US market the "market" inside the indicies is in much sorrier state. If we look at some of the semi stocks individually we see some have already reversed back into their pre-break out congestion... (some moved out on Friday and pulled right back in) RFMD INTC AMAT NVLS ALTR Some never made a new high / stuck in a congestion range close to highs AMD KLAC LSCC TER, short if moves below Friday's low Some have still held on to their highs LLTC - as of Thursday LSI - as of Friday MOT - as of Friday NSM - as of Tuesday - very strong run TXN - as of Wednesday - strong run with toppy appearances Friday XLNX - as of wednesday - strong run with toppy appearances Some are well off their highs MU - short below 65 ;) RMBS So.... I'd say lets watch the three real strong ones; note if the rest pull back into their congestion zone - these actions would all be consistant with a trend end. And I can't think of much worse for a tech stock than an end of trend. Or the ndx and compx! Of other interest to me, and I'll post some charts later, that VIX gap down and immediate reversal. A great confirmation of a swing top. Lets see what happens Monday am - if VIX continues to move up and some of the SOX and other test of top failures in tech occur, we may well have an interesting week, if not Monday.