To: Gutterball who wrote (512 ) 2/9/2000 6:39:00 PM From: Gutterball Read Replies (1) | Respond to
$10.0 MILLION$13.4 million . In October, this looked like a significant goal (ie, $13.4 million), but with the info that has come out since, this number is low (ie, $13.4 million) and my serendipitous $17.7 million appears more in line with estimates. sec.gov Here's my guestimate. $4.5 million - New Business . This is a freebie considering Messagemedia has announced $4.5 million in new contracts for Q4 #reply-12683274. $5.1 million - Same Store Sales. Messagemedia had $3.6 million pro forma revenues in Q3 #reply-11705268. But this did not include 1-1/2 months sales from Revnet Systems and Decisive Technology which I estimate at $0.5 million (3.6 - 3.1 = .5). Thus same store sales would have been around $4.1 million all things being equal. However, the Christmas season is a factor and therefore we can expect same store sales to be significantly higher because of increased use of their services by e-tailers. This is the wild card in my guestimate; ie, how much of an increase can be attributed to Christmas? Based on Yahoo!s increase in revenues Q3 $155 million to Q4 $201 million, I'm going to say 25% increase in same store sales; therefore, $4.1 x 1.25 = $5.125 = $5.1 million.$0.4 million Interest Income . This is that little discussed revenue I said I'd disclose in the guess-off #reply-12612458. Recall that $42 million placement late in Oct 99 #reply-11699808, well, Messagemedia didn't spend all that money overnight and we should see some interest income. Let's see, I'm figuring 6% over 2 mo is equivalent to 1% x $40 million = $400,000. Of course, a smart ass wouldn't speak to this directly so I rephrased it as number of shares (45 million shrs) which were about equal at the time #reply-12615996 and JBruin corrected my math #reply-12613607.better than expected #reply-12420838. The Grey contract coupled with the build out in Europe suggests they will be able carry record revenue growth (>50%)past the next quarter. It's a great company with great revenue growth (4 times that of Cisco). Thus far, its been a Goldilocks stock; ie, not too hot and not too cold. Once investors get the message, the sleeper will awaken.If you would like to post your guestimate, click on this link #reply-12787700. Review the rules and then post your questimate in respond to the rules page #reply-12787700. Click on "View reply to this page" when on the rules page #reply-12787700 to see guestimates already posted.
