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Strategies & Market Trends : The GUMMMy Bear Squad touting Gum Tech (NASDAQ: GUMM) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: pz who wrote (136)	2/6/2000 5:47:00 PM
From: StockMiser	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 207

I've been running a few of my own tests...with 2 small kids, I also have lots of opportunities :) During our last cold, my wife took zicam and I decided not to (sort acting as a 'control'). She got over her cold in 2 days. But so did I, without any Zicam. Both my kids (age 3 and 5) came down with the same cold, and both got zicam. My 5 year old was better in 2 days, and other still has it a week later (and is still using zicam). Our neighbor's boy got the cold at the same time, and was better in the same time frame as my 5 year old (he didn't have zicam, and my kid did). So the only conclusion I can come up with is that you can't possibly know if zicam was the reason for getting over those colds, even if you get better in a few days. Colds have a very wide variance in severity and length of infection. If you can take zicam and still have a cold a week later, or NOT take zicam and be well in 2 days, you're gonna have to have very solid clinical data, preferrably with many subjects in a variety of geographical locations and over some times (like 6 months minimum to "catch" a variety of viruses). As for allergies, I've had sinus allergies for years - all kinds...heh. Zicam has zero effect that I can tell, and I got very common allergies (such as ragweed). I'll try it again in spring, but anithistimines seem to work better (and they are cheaper). I don't actually understand the science behind zinc and allergies...what would the mechanism be for it to work? The so-called studies are very worrisome. Without some additional details about how the studies were done, they don't mean much to me. This last PR with the dubious alternative-medicine doctor doesn't exactly instill confidence that gumtech is doing real "science" at all. Seems like it was aimed more at marketing and spin than true science. I'd be willing to make a 180 degree reversal of that opinion should zicam every actually get published in a real scientific journal...or better yet...have them make a presentation at a viral-oriented conference where their peers can ask questions. None of this has much to do with my feelings about GUMM, the stock. I've traded it several times over the last few weeks. Earnings looked very good. But I don't see a rocket to $100/share as many gumsters seem to, at least basd on zicam sales. As someone else on here insightfully pointed out...many people are willing to try something novel. At least once. But it's repeat sales that will tell the tale. I've told a lot of my friends and family about zicam, and so far they would "like to think" it works...but if you really probe them, the results are not at all clear. In fact, if I were to actually compare those in close contact with each other (so they presumably have the same virus), and chart out those that took zicam versus those that didn't, I don't think I'd find any statistical significance at all. Based on the alleged "clinical results" I would expect the results comparing a zicam user to a non-zicam user for the same cold virus to be startling, or at least very clear. However, in all cases so far, the difference is very hard to detect at all. In fact, in the case of my sister-in-law and her husband, I saw exactly the opposite effect - she was over her cold in 3 days without zicam, and he still has his 8 days later and is on his second bottle of zicam. (Interestingly though, if you ask him, he thinks zicam is "great", he recommends it to everyone, and he absolutely believes it is somehow reducing the effects of his cold. A placebo-effect is very real, but when you add the potential of financial gain - as in the gumsters - you got some powerful medicine indeed). At our local Albertson's, they seem overstocked (shelves are packed with the stuff), and they are now offering $1 off. So far, zicam is just-so-much snake oil, like zinc tablets, which have never been proven to work, and the most recent studies out of Australia, showed zinc had no statistically significant effect at all on length or severity of colds. Bottomline....zicam is no magic bullet. People will buy it and believe it works - at least for a few colds. But it's effects are not so amazing or consistant so that people will rush out to make sure they always have some in the medicine chest. The real judge will be time. I predict zicam will be just another passing fad like cold-eze... SM