To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (59849 ) 2/6/2000 9:53:00 AM From: Roebear Respond to of 95453
George S. Cole, Of interest: RIYADH, Feb 7 (Reuters) - Saudi Arabia will go through big economic change this year with admission to the World Trade Organisation (WTO), an opening to foreign investment and continued domestic reforms all on the cards, according to a senior economist. This turn of events was sparked largely by last year's dramatic upturn in world oil prices, which in turn boosted government revenues, Saudi American Bank (SAMBA) chief economist Brad Bourland said in a report received by Reuters. "High oil prices were the highlight of Saudi economic developments in 1999...and 1999 ended as a turnaround year for the Saudi economy, from a path of deterioration to one of improvement," the report said. "While 1999 was the year of oil prices, 2000 is shaping up to be the year of change," the report added. Saudi Arabia, the world's largest oil exporter, derives some 75 percent of government revenues from oil and suffered badly early last year when oil prices plunged to 12-year lows. Last March, producers inside and outside the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) agreed to cut output, helping to triple benchmark Brent crude to around $27 a barrel. The SAMBA report forecast that Saudi oil, which mostly trades at a discount to Brent, would continue to trade in a range of $17-20 a barrel in 2000. Reforms, initiated in 1999 to diversify the economy away from oil, are to continue this year. KINGDOM CONTINUES FAR-REACHING REFORMS Last year, the kingdom launched several far-reaching reforms, largely directed at opening the economy to foreign investment and increasing private sector involvement. It also announced that it was forming the Saudi Electricity Company, which merged its mainly state-owned regional power firms in a move towards privatisation. Saudi Arabia is now in negotiations to join the WTO and the SAMBA report said there was a good chance for accession in 2000. The kingdom and Oman are the only Gulf Arab states not yet members of the global trade club. Economists say WTO accession will inevitably bring on trade liberalisation and economic diversification. But the SAMBA report said while improved oil revenues helped the economy in 1999, the government still had other issues to tackle, including high government debt, low capital spending on infrastructure and growing unemployment. Low real growth rates meant the economy was creating about one job for every three Saudis entering the labour force, the report said. It called youth unemployment an "emerging problem," saying 15-20 percent of Saudis aged between 20-29 were jobless. The report forecast Saudi Arabia's real economic growth to at around two percent in 2000 and nominal growth at six percent. The kingdom saw real gross domestic product (GDP) growth of one percent in 1999 and nominal growth of 8.4 percent. Copyright 2000, Reuters News Service