Had to send a few e-mails out... next stop Crazy Meeker: ;-)
Hi,
Now that I'm a MER client, I would like to bring a couple things up which you folks obviously don't quite understand. First, Matei, is this news release I find:
asia.biz.yahoo.com
"0811 [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: Merrill Lynch analyst Matei Mihalca maintains buy recommendation on Pacific Century CyberWorks (1186) on its US$380 million JV with CMGI; positive about JV though details sketchy; CMGI's brands, experience, and know-how should assist CyberWorks in creating viable businesses in Asia. Mihalca sets 12-month target at HK$25; but says value hasn't been a great indicator for buying or selling Internet stocks; says it's now trading at about same level as what he thinks is net asset value for company; compares to about 200 to 500 times NAV for CMGI. Shares closed up 5.0% to $18.75 yesterday.(STT)"
Uh... "200 to 500 times NAV for CMGI"?? Sorry my friend, but you are WAY off. I calculate 1.6x marketable, public securities ALONE. I love PCCLF, holding 75,000 shares myself, but boy is your research just plain terrible. Yes, investors lately seem to be blind to the fact that ENGA just purchased AdForce and FlyCast from CMGI for $2.6 Billion in stock. ENGA was at 77 at the time. It's now double that. CMGI owns 87% of ENGA after the transaction... which equates to $10 Billion+ in securities from ENGA alone, assuming the deal goes through in May, which will obviously happen (regardless price/public securities is under 2 or so). Altogether, publicly traded securities owned by CMGI equate to about $16.5 Billion. Add in $5 Billion for Alta Vista, $3 Billion each for 1stUp and NaviNet, and now you're already over CMGI's current mkt cap! You essentially receive CMGI Asia, CMGI Solutions, MyWay.com, iCast, almost a $billion in cash, the future opportunities of a $1 Billion B2B VC fund & a $1 Billion Net Technology VC fund, CMGI Europe, CMGI Latin America, SII relationship, venture w/ LogiTech, new VC funds coming shortly, Tribal Voice, International data center initiative, YesMail, AdForce (last 2 soon to be acquired by ENGA, thus increasing marketable securities even more), 1ClickCharge, Activate.Net, SalesLink, Activerse, etc., etc. Now also add in 50+ investments including WebCT, MyFamily.com, EXP.com, BizBuyer.com, Intelligent/Digital, Diamondback, FoodBuy.com, Productopia, Visto, SnapFish, CraftShop.com, and on and on and on.... I don't know... call me crazy, but I would say this is the greatest bargain out there! How can you honestly tell me this is worth anything less than 500/share? Your price target, Mr. Blodget, is equivalent to fishing in a barrel full of starving fish! I am being extremely conservative w/ NaviNet & 1stUp's valuation. NZRO is a $3.65 Billion company. NZRO has 3 million users. 1stUp has 1.7 million, however, they are growing a hell of a lot faster as they sign up more and more companies every single day, including the likes of ATHM, and another major portal to be announced shortly. I also find it interesting that there is a lot of FOX interaction lately... a News Corp asset. News Corp also owns Star TV, Li's ever-growing 135 million household satellite cable TV creation (there are only 100 million U.S. households in TOTAL). Maybe coincidental, but interesting nonetheless. I certainly don't see CMGI merging w/ a media giant... no, they aren't a foolish, dying dinosaur like AOL. Why high growth AOL merged w/ slow-poke TWX instead of simply partnering together is beyond me... except that AOL is in serious trouble as 1stUp and NZRO continue to gain mkt share. If I were you, Mr. Blodget, I would take a hint... AOL will be hurting... badly. NaviNet, if you didn't realize it, is providing NZRO and 1stUp's low cost dial-up access. Then we have CMGI Asia. Richard Li estimated, quite conservatively IMO, that CMGI Asia will be worth $28 Billion in 2 1/2 years. CMGI owns 1/2 of that. Well, with all 18 of CMGI's operating companies now going to China, and each of them owning 40% of their China counterpart, there's a whole lot more money going to CMGI (CMGI essentially owns 60-70%... 1/2 of 60% + say, for ENGA, 87% of 40%.. of all the Chinese CMGI operating companies). Geez, call me crazy, but your analysis really needs to be updated. In Mihalca's case, the analysis is 100% FALSE... though I certainly wouldn't mind a stock price of 35,000... maybe you should adjust your target accordingly? But, hey, what do I know? I've only made 24,000% over the last year and hundreds of people call me "Zen_Warrior" or simply "Zen" on RagingBull, instead of "Jon". I did however appreciate being a "notable poster" per Online Investor Magazine. I am even more proud that I'm the 11th most bookmarked poster on RB, though DW has me beat at the #3 spot... can't believe he's not #1. Finally, let me just say... if you want real analysis of CMGI, or any other Net company, first come to RB's CMGIOT board... but that's just my "unprofessional" opinion. I'm no "superstar analyst", but I certainly out-perform any hedge-fund or mutual fund that I know of.
BTW, stay away from DCLK... they are doomed. Even without the privacy issue, DCLK doesn't even begin to stand a chance going against ENGA. DCLK is HOPING to have 5-10 million people profiled on the Net by the END of this year. ENGA already has 42 million recent, deep, quantified (via proprietary algorithms), anonymous profiles. Now consider the China connection. Hmmm... the Chinese have a WHOLE lot more TV's than PC's... add in Li's PCCW, and CMGI's relationship w/ them. Now consider that serving ads is the easy part; TARGETING those ads is a whole new level perfectly fit for the Internet. Those who win the targeting will win the serving, the software, the analysis, etc. DCLK had great first mover advantage, and they marketed themselves well, but ENGA will rule over the coming years... you heard it from a RagingBull CMGIOT board poster first.
Have a good day,
- Zen ;-)
p.s. Sally, if these e-mail addresses were incorrect, could you please forward to them? Thanks a lot. BTW, Mr. Analysts, Sally is a swell MER broker. ;-) |
