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Strategies & Market Trends : Systems, Strategies and Resources for Trading Futures -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Zilog who wrote (40443)	2/6/2000 4:18:00 AM
From: Michael Watkins	Respond to of 44573

Zilog - my read is down as well. In addition to the daily candles I offer the following: - intraday bars on 4 and 5 Jan have at this time set up a 1-2-3 reversal, with price closing up to the underside of the break. If we see price on the spoos heading south and breaking Fridays low, I'm hoping that it doesn't tank right away so I can position a short on a retracement. Suspect it will be a fast trip to the prior swing low... and from there no one knows. But my bias is down. - VIX gapped down on Friday open and reversed almost immediately. If VIX continues up on Monday I think we can view it as a confirmation of a VIX reversal, and I note that VIX gap down/reversals are very effective confirmations of swing highs (Thurs/Fri). - The leaders - SOX and misc tech - many of the component stocks have reversed back into their 1-2-3 zones/congestion after brief trips into new highs. If they are unable to recover, the likelyhood increases dramatically that we are seeing an important intermediate, if not longer term, top in these stocks. Without generals the NDX/COMPX, NQ/ND have no where to go but down. With NYSE/SP and many non-tech sector indicies already weak; losing market leadership, as thin as its been, is not a positive development for the market. I'm not about to place a big bet until the market shows its direction. But I think my bearish bias may well come in handy next week... PS As this is my first post in this medium, please forgive the red highlites, they are not mine. Hey, an easier question/problem to answer/solve. The red highlights you see in the "preview" mode are words the built in spell checker considers misspelled.

To: Zilog who wrote (40443)	2/6/2000 5:56:00 PM
From: Temple Williams	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 44573

Hi ... you suggested "forget about the Elliot hocus pokus" ... you won't really get much of an argument from me .... But much of my success as a trader has EWave as a foundation. With this caveat: My EWave work offends a lot of strict Ellioticians, because I build it from the ground up (rather than the top down), and I am very influenced by non-Ewave stuff. I am not a purist, and often get flack because of it. I never use EWave for entry or exit (prefer signals from stochastics and Bollinger Bands, combined with a s/t trend analysis I do) ... anyway, what I really try to do, in a nutshell, is follow the traders in the pit. They are the most successful traders ... they have to be to survive ... and they are by and large scalpers (although they successfully swing trade in their own accounts from time to time). The most successful bond trader in the pits averages about .90 a trade ... less than a handle ... and nobody would ever accuse him of undertrading. So I use the charts you saw at the site as a roadmap to scalp within ... never an entry or exit ... just barriers that keep me out of the ditches as I try to mimick what the pit traders are telling me (via the charts). I guess that makes me a tape-reader with EWave tendencies ... but it does drive a lot of Elliot "purists" nuts. On the other hand, it also means that I can listen to your excellent analysis and take advantage of it, should the Alternate series decide to kick my bullish leaning in the teeth. You can lead me to the abattoir, but you'll have a tough time squeezing me through the door. Because I morph pretty easily into a bear if that's what the boyz in the pits are trading. :o)