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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Goutam who wrote (91786)	2/6/2000 5:17:00 AM
From: Process Boy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1577093

Goutama - <Look at Pat Gelsinger's statement - it was worded very carefully. From this there is no clear indication that Intel planned it's output to meet the forecasted 15 percent growth in the CPU market.> I know for a fact that Intel under forecasted demand for this time frame, and modeled capacity accordingly. Big mistake, IMHO, as it is giving the Athlon a wide open door to build infrastructure. I believe Intel's hope is that as P858 ramps, the situation will improve. From my perspective, I don't know how it can't (supply situation improve), as long as there are no mis-steps in the execution of the ramp going forward. I don't anticipate any, BTW, as it is pretty straight forward from here. However, in the interim, AMD has a wide opening to exploit, as you have stated. PB

To: Goutam who wrote (91786)	2/6/2000 12:30:00 PM
From: kash johal	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1577093

Goutama, Re:"AMD earnings in Q1" You got it!!!! Thats why AMD's earnings will BLOW by Intels this quarter. And no wonder WindSock ignored my bet on the earnings for this quarter. Perhaps he's not quite as stooopid as yousef was!!!! I doubt we will see $1/share. But $0.80-85 surely wouldn't surprise me!!! regards, Kash

To: Goutam who wrote (91786)	2/6/2000 2:20:00 PM
From: Charles R	Respond to of 1577093

Goutama, <Look at Pat Gelsinger's statement - it was worded very carefully. From this there is no clear indication that Intel planned it's output to meet the forecasted 15 percent growth in the CPU market. > You noticed that too! It is fudge city. <Based on this statement, one can assume that AMD will capture about 8 to 10 percent from the >20 percent growth of the market.> As much as I like this to happen, I am afraid it will not. The business SKUs have simply not come AMDs way yet. Any volume picked up on the business side will be small this Q. < This would translate into an additional 2.5M to 3M AMD CPU's from Q4'99. At $90 ASP(assuming higher ASP from Q4'99), this would give about $225M revenues from the additional CPU sales! Add another $75 additional revenues from other business segments and you are looking at close to $300M more from the previous quarter or about $1 EPS from the increased sales alone!> I don't quite agree with your numbers but for a long time I have been saying AMD will have a $1 in earnings this Q and the current situation just cements that perspective. I expect see upgrades start rolling in in the coming weeks probably starting with the launch of the 850. Chuck