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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: hmaly who wrote (91789)2/6/2000 7:28:00 AM
From: Process Boy  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 1575622
 
hmlay - You unilaterally attribute me with a bunch of opinions I in fact don't have. Nice job of unrelated ranting.

PB



To: hmaly who wrote (91789)2/6/2000 12:51:00 PM
From: Dan3  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 1575622
 
Re: But did OPEC regain market share once oil prices dropped in 1980...

Interesting metaphor, but I'm not sure that Intel/AMD/VIA CPUs are the near perfect substitutes that crude oil can be.

And light Arabian crude continues to carry a hefty premium due to its low sulphur content, since there continue to be some refineries that can't handle anything else - even barrels of oil from different regions aren't perfect substitutes.

Nonetheless, your point that it's going to be a lot easier to maintain a solid presence in all ranges of the market than it will be to establish one is difficult to refute. The best evidence being the present slow penetration of Athlon into the high end despite its blatantly superior price/performance and far better present availability.

Regards,

Dan

PS - I haven't annoyed the list recently with a re-post of my January 3 forecast - so here it is again :-)

Message 12446666

Here's a possible scenario for AMD in Y2K:

Millions of units:

T Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
K7 2 4 6 8
K6 5 4 2 0

K7 ASP $150
K6 ASP $60

Costs:

.9B 1.0B 1.1B 1.2B

Flash Sales $1.5B
Com and Misc $0.5B

Earnings: $1.4B
EPS for Y2K: $9.30
Stock price: $280



To: hmaly who wrote (91789)2/6/2000 3:38:00 PM
From: tejek  Respond to of 1575622
 
hmaly,

Well said!

I might add that the advent of the Willamette is being heralded in the same way the cumine was used before its intro.....as a potential sledgehammer hit to AMD and the Athlon.

I have no doubt that the Willamette will have impact but I suspect it will not be that much more than the impact of cumine. Remember, the unknown always looks much bigger than life when it is unknown.

ted


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