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Strategies & Market Trends : TIMING INDEX MUTUAL FUNDS -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: edward miller who wrote (40)	2/6/2000 12:04:00 PM
From: Lee Lichterman III	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 428

You make a good point in that we are attempting to fight the strongest index but by staying with teh NDX as much as possible, we are playing the most volatile index. The SPX swings in the 3-5% area while the NDX makes swings in the 10% range easily. If we can nail this index, the 1.8X ratio means large gains ( larger losses if we are wrong <ggg>) Since we have half our powder dry still, the downside risk still is not that large since we are also playing with some of the house's money after a few wins. At teh bottom of the tracking sheet, you can see that had we bought long and held, we would be flat or negative anyway. The upside seems to be somewhat limited and after teh strong rally last week, the NDX is due for a pullback if on nothing more than a fib retrace thus the risk and hope for the larger swings. Good Luck, Lee

To: edward miller who wrote (40)	2/6/2000 1:56:00 PM
From: donald sew	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 428

Ed, >>>> With the S&P rolling over more obviously than the NAS, why are you in USPIX and not more into URPIX? The NAS is going it's own way (UP !!) while the Dow and S&P are having their troubles. <<<< Per my INDEX UPDATE, I have a CLASS 1 SELL SIGNAL on the NAZ and the SPX. The main reason Im playing the USPIX is that the swings are much greater, but you are correct in that there is more risk. On the other hand, on JAN 20 I got a CLASS 1 SELL signal on the NAZ and we bought the USPIX and if you check our trades at home.att.net we made 3 trades during that pullback with the USPIX which profited 12.3%, 3.7%,and 7.5%. So the NAZ did work well with my signals. So to answer your question I am comfortable with my SELL SIGNALS on the NAZ, but not that comfortable to put 100% into it. Thats why Im now considering to add the URPIX. Dont get me wrong since you have a legitimate question, and if I understand it correctly it was why not go with the weakness rather than strength. I also need to add that I suspect that the NAZ has limited upside and that the upward momentum is slowing down, per my short-term technicals which I see. Am I sure - no, but leaning that way. One last thing, even with the recent strength in the NAZ the oscillations in the NAZ have been more volitile and greater than the SPX, and we are playing both sides. seeya