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Strategies & Market Trends : Rande Is . . . HOME -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Kanetsu who wrote (19991)	2/6/2000 12:53:00 PM
From: BANCHEE	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 57584

Kanetsu BDE,,get mentioned in Variety.com article... Banchee variety.com

To: Kanetsu who wrote (19991)	2/6/2000 1:36:00 PM
From: Rande Is	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 57584

Kanetsu, On the wireless. . .there is a selection of them in our long ports. . . which were designed as the basis from which positions and swings are taken at various times during the year. . . in the Hybrid Trading system. Also, please refresh my memory as how Phone.com is wireless. . .isn't this a telephony play? To all. . . Wireless and xDSL are certainly important developments. However, I have stated my opinion on the difference between these and set-top boxes. . . which is why I stay focused on set-tops and only lightly dabble in others. xDSL requires hookup to your PC. Wireless generally requires hookup to your laptop. . . except via cell phone, but cell phones are not going to grow the internet. The key to never forget is that less than 10 percent of Americans are using the internet. . . and only about a quarter of Americans have personal computers. . .but with the dawn of the set-top box, there may be as many as 40% on the internet within 5 to 6 years. Nobody "likes" sitting at a desk typing in words. . .no matter what the speed. . . at least not when given a choice to sit on their family sofa, and use a small wireless keypad/mouse/hotkey board like a remote control to watch full-motion video on their TV set. . .have video conference calls with family. . .listen to latest CD quality recordings in real-time. . .surf the internet at the speed of fibre-optics. . . and all for a reasonable price, similar to that of cable TV. By contrast, xDSL is currently being slated for speeds similar to T1 - T3 [depending on the service provider], yet requires expensive node updates by regional Bells. . .and still requires use of PC. . .This will be popular in certain urban areas, where buildings cannot be easily retrofit. But personally, I cannot WAIT until I can retire my PCs to functions other than internet use. Wireless will always be the expensive means of internet access. . .and will mostly be limited to business users and certain geographical areas.. . . ARTT, for instance, has no plans to roll out their wireless service to consumers at all. . . .but just go after the business customers. In my opinion, the set-top box will be the greatest single technological development since the personal computer in the lives of regular people in America. The reason is fundamental. . . today there is a small amount of users. . .but once the set-top box is rolled out and consumers see the benefits. . . . then you, your next-door neighbor, your aunt, your grandma, your mailman, the guy that runs the gas station down the street, your trash collector, your cleaning lady. . . EVERYONE! will be talking about the latest interactive TV shows, interactive game shows, interactive movies, games they played with their siblings overseas, you name it. . . The internet will become one function of your Visual Communications Entertainment Data Center. Communications and entertainment as we know it will change with the set-top box. NOT with xDSL and NOT with wireless, IMO. Why am I so confident? Once more. . .because I personally sold more A.T.&.T. set-top boxes to families and businesses than anyone in America during the 1980's. I saw how families embraced the idea of instant information via a remote control on their TV sets. . . .but the text-based internet [Viewtron] of the 80's was only slightly faster than today's AOL through a dial-up modem. . . . which is terribly slow. . . in fact, during peak periods . . .AOL is often so slow that your browser will "time out" requests. The new digital fibre-optic set-top boxes will have NO speed problems whatsoever . . . and there will be no need to update your PC. . . as new set-top boxes come available, they will get distributed. Once again, look around. . .those big spools of plastic tubing you see on the sides of roads across America are being laid to house the fibre-optic cables that will come straight to your house. . .via the set-top box. I live way out in the country, yet Intermedia has fibre-optic lines running alongside my house, while BellSouth is installing redundant pairs on the main road a short ways away. . . . I expect that within 2 years, I will have a choice of service for my digital fibre-optics set-top box . . . of either of these companies. . . allowing me to trade in @HOME network via the cable modem I have had for 1 1/2 years, which runs between 1M and 4M [faster than T3]. .. yet slow when compared to fibre-optics . . .especially with the all-optical networks that are coming. At this point, xDSL in the Nashville area is still on the drawing boards. . .by a future IPO by "Bluestar". . . and I expect wireless to stay about 4 times the cost of fibre-optics. Now wireless overseas is another issue. . .I believe that 5 to 10 years from now, cellular/microwave, wireless internet and fuel cells will connect parts of the world, which have never before had global communications. . . and will never have cable of any sort. So in my opinion a basket of broadband last mile tech would hold 40% fibre-optics related telecom, 40% set-top box makers, 15% wireless, 5% xDSL. I am not the end all authority on the subject, by any means. But that should explain WHY I tend to favor some sectors much more than others. Hope that helps clarify things some. Rande Is