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To: David Weis who wrote (2307)2/6/2000 1:03:00 PM
From: steve mamus  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 8096
 
I don't know the answer.
However, a simple truth. I am not selling CSCO and I won't write covered calls on the stock.
This is a stock that it is simply not worth getting caught up in the short term moves - they are largely not predictable and even if they were why chance the long term gains for a meaningless short term drop irrespective of the reason for that drop. By the way do you have NT - the chart for the last year is essentially perpendicular to the baseline. The stock has performed better then CSCO over the last 12-14 months or so. NT is also a keeper and has a number of short term volatile moves convulsing in both directions for reasons that are largely irrelevant to the long term view that it is a keeper IMHO.

Steve



To: David Weis who wrote (2307)2/6/2000 4:06:00 PM
From: Bridge Player  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 8096
 
IMO the concept stated in this clip is quite relevant in judging the high-tech market of today. It strikes me that many of us have become comfortable with valuation levels in this sector over the last couple of years (which are apparently expected to continue) that not long ago would have seemed outlandishly extreme and unsustainable. In a market with rising interest rates and a tightening Fed, this concerns me.

<< Taken from Stocks & Commodities, V. 12:11 (459-462): The Coppock Curve by Elliott Middleton

"We are creatures of habit. We judge the world relative to what we have experienced. If we're shopping for a mortgage
and rates have been in the teens (as they were in the early 1980s) and then drop to 10%, we are elated. If, however, they've been at 8% and then rise to 10%, we are disappointed. It all depends on your perspective.

The principle of adaptation-level applies to how we judge our income levels, stock prices and virtually every other
variable in our lives. Psychologically, relativity prevails. >>

BP