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Technology Stocks : Identix (IDNX) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: brad greene who wrote (16689)	2/6/2000 2:16:00 PM
From: David	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 26039

Speculating . . . The best IDX can hope for, someday, is Microsoft adopting IDX software into its O/S as the exclusive biometric supplier, shipped to everyone. Second best, is IDX as the exclusive biometric in the authentication option to the Windows active directory O/S. Third best, is IDX as the exclusive fingerprint biometric in the O/S, shipped everywhere. Fourth best, IDX is the exclusive fingerprint biometric in a MSFT authentication option to its O/S. Fifth best, IDX competes with one or more fingerprint biometric vendors in the O/S shipped everywhere. Sixth best, IDX competes with one or more fingerprint biometric software vendors in a MSFT authentication option to its O/S. Seventh best, MSFT doesn't take up biometrics at all in Windows 2000. Eighth and last, by far, IDX is shut out while MSFT goes with other biometric vendors. The software we're discussing would only be part of the BioEngine -- in particular, the storage of a reference template and the matching algorithm. Extraction, as I understand these systems, won't occur in the O/S itself. If we see #1, then $30 or higher is in the ballpark right away. Number 2 out to be good for $25, number 3 for up to $20, number 4 might get us to $17, number 5 to $14, number 6 to the $12 ceiling, number 7 has no effect, and number 8 drops us back to $6. How's that for specific, uninformed speculation? What's becoming clear to me is that dumb money is coming into biometrics. In general, the smaller your penny stock, the higher its appreciation. IDX can ride this wave, but it is too big and well known to benefit from the total ignorance of speculators. We need some legitimate good news. And given the presence of money coming into this sector, any price predictions can be too conservative. I think ESAF is a great example of speculative money entering a stock. They've made no substantive announcements justifying their price increase. But they did manage to get "Redmond" into their news by a pretty funny decision to relocate not just in the Seattle area, but right by Microsoft. I view that as a subtle pump, but a pump nonetheless. There is zero cause to think there is really an ESAF-MSFT connection. However, given the speculative climate, it has become hard to predict how high ESAF stock can go before inevitably returning to the $1 to $2 range it had been in early.