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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: buck who wrote (17327)2/6/2000 1:57:00 PM
From: melinda abplanalp  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 54805
 
RE: OT Poking my head out of lurk mode...

You can have a great afternoon while your wife is out house hunting??? YOU are a brave guy. LOL

Back to lurking...

Mel



To: buck who wrote (17327)2/6/2000 2:33:00 PM
From: Lawrence Feldman  Respond to of 54805
 
thanks, buck. appreciate the FC overview. good luck with the house hunting.

larry.



To: buck who wrote (17327)2/6/2000 6:47:00 PM
From: GuinnessGuy  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 54805
 
Buck,

Thanks so much for your research to date. Fascinating stuff.

One thing I don't understand about routers(aren't they really just bridges?) is that RAID and Tape drive manufacturers are going to native fibre channel devices. If true, won't this obviate the need for the bridges that CRDS and other manufacture?

STK and ADIC have both introduced such products on the tape side. On the disk drive front both Seagate and IBM(and others) have introduced native FC drives. It's also my understanding that, economies of scale being equal(of course, they are not now equal), FC native drives are less expensive to produce.

If my assumptions are correct, doesn't this make the bulk of CRDS' products superfluous at some point in the not-too-distant future?

P.S. - Keep up the good work!!!

Craig



To: buck who wrote (17327)2/7/2000 7:49:00 AM
From: FLSTF97  Respond to of 54805
 
FC/ Crossroads

Nice presentation Buck. For the technically challenged this interview with the Crossroads CEO is probably worth listening to:

biz.yahoo.com

Several things caught my interest. First as you mentioned they have Intel as an investor and HP as well. I know about Intel's VC operation first hand. They don't just invest in good ideas, but rather technologies that are key for Intel's future growth.

The other thing noteworthy is that the CEO when asked when they expect to turn profitable said that the street estimated it would be late CY 2000, but he added if our growth rate increases it would be sooner.

I hope that he didn't make such a statement because he is young and naive, but rather that he really expected this to occur. Even then I bet the corporate counsel wasn't thrilled!

Since the lock out period expires in mid April, that may create a buying opportunity (Yeah, I know we don't time the market, but there is nothing wrong with wishful thinking!)

Buck did you find any independent evaluation of their routers vs. the competitions? There must be some reason that IBM choose to partner with a competitor. Even if Crossroads is the "firstest with the mostest", it would be nice to know if their solution is currently the "bestest".

FATBOY



To: buck who wrote (17327)2/7/2000 9:21:00 AM
From: DownSouth  Respond to of 54805
 
10



To: buck who wrote (17327)8/1/2000 1:57:11 AM
From: tekboy  Read Replies (6) | Respond to of 54805
 
buck--

I realize this may touch a sore spot, but in the tradition of Apollo's brilliant self-flagellations, I wonder if I could get you to comment on the following.

The other day, in a fit of masochism and schadenfreude, I came up with the following chart:

siliconinvestor.com

All four of the companies listed have done terribly over the last several months, but for different reasons and with different implications. All had run up during the winter/spring bubble and came down a bit thanks to simple gravity, but their stories part after that.

CTXS ran into real business problems and covered them up; when the problems came out, the stock dropped precipitously. I sold it after the truth emerged, and came away with the lesson that even very smart and knowledgeable investors (not me, but rather people like Merlin and Luke) can get blindsided now and then--and with an appreciation for the importance of tornados.

ITXC has continued to do a great job running its business, but has been hurt by selling from some institutional investors and by Mr. Market's current attitude towards still-unprofitable-pebbles-with-future-stories-and-high-valuations. Although I am disappointed, and have seen some calls go basically to zero, I remain confident in the management (friends) and the company, am holding on to my common shares for the long term. (In fact, I even picked up a few Jan ATM calls today.)

QCOM, everyone knows. Again, I'm hanging tight, and believe (pray) that all will be well in the long run.

CRDS, the last of the four, is the one I haven't owned and am least familiar with. I know there has been an earnings disaster, some insider shenanigans, and a shareholder lawsuit; it sounds to me like CTXS only worse. Remembering your presentation of it back in February (the post to which this is a reply), I would be interested in hearing what you think went wrong. Also, in retrospect, were the problems at all predictable? What, in other words, have you learned from this debacle, and what should the takeaway be for the rest of us?

thanks in advance,

tekboy/Ares@asmeatloaf'sbrokersaid,threeoutoffourain'tbad.com