To: Montana Wildhack who wrote (3290 ) 2/7/2000 7:42:00 AM From: Tom Drolet Respond to of 14101
Wolf: Summary article in today's non-influential "Toronto Star" is worth a glance-- It doesn't mention the best Canadian Biotech of them all (DMX)-- but what do they know!! (surprises are coming to them) Tom D. Choice Portfolios--7 Feb 2000--Toronto Star Business section -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- David Cruise and Alison Griffiths Canadian biotechnology was a sleeper that finally woke up Last November Duncan ``whatever you do, don't call me a genius' Stewart told Choice Portfolio readers that we were entering a good period to own shares in biotechnology. The sector has ``been lagging behind technology, which has had an extended run,' he said at the time. ``Everybody's looking for a moon shot (a rocketing stock). If people take their money out of technology because they feel there aren't many moon shots left, I think they're likely to put it into biotech.' Stewart, who is portfolio manager for the Navigator Canadian Technology Fund, pointed out that the period from November to spring is traditionally good for investors, and that this is particularly true in biotechnology. Food and Drug Administration meetings in the United States take place from November to January, so that's ``when the good news comes, if there is any, and also the approvals.' Bad news is random, can come any time, he adds. ``So this is when you have a concentrated period of good news.' At the time, the Body and Soul biotech portfolio piloted by Stewart was languishing around its starting point of $50,000. It soared to more than $100,000 at one point during the Christmas holidays before settling at $110,500. That's a gain of more than 100 per cent in the six months since the portfolio started. ``My crystal ball is doing pretty well this year. But then it was pretty obvious,' Stewart says with a touch of modesty. ``Biotech hasn't done well for a while. Eventually you knew people would wake up to what these interesting Canadian companies are doing in this undervalued sector.' And wake up it did. In the month of January alone, the TSE's biotech index was up 14.5 per cent. And where did the money come from? As Stewart predicted, almost certainly a portion came from technology. In the same time period, the exchange's hardware index fell 7.5 per cent. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- `Eventually you knew people would wake up to what these Canadian companies are doing in this undervalued sector' -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Ten of the 11 stocks in Stewart's portfolio are up, three have doubled or better and at the moment he has no losers. The biggest winner is Angiotech Pharmaceuticals Inc. which has increased more than 500 per cent, from $11.15 to $56.50. The company is working with existing licensed anti-cancer drugs to improve the results of angioplasty heart surgery. ``The little blood vessels inside the heart get blocked, which is not good,' Stewart explains. ``First they tried inflating the vessel with balloons (angioplasty). That wasn't 100 per cent successful. Then they tried putting little wire cages around the balloons. What happened was that the little micro-arteries grow around the cage and eventually close up the blood vessel again. ``The people at Angiotech noticed that the way the arteries grew around the cage is somewhat similar to the way cancer acts. Some of the anti-cancer treatments attack the blood vessels, so they reasoned that if they coated the wire cages with the same medicine it might have a positive effect. Recently permission was given to go into clinical testing.' Part of the reason Body and Soul has no losers is that Stewart unloaded Cellegy Pharmaceuticals Inc., a company researching a treatment for anal fissures and hemorrhoids, on Dec. 6. The stock plummeted after announcing clinical trials had failed. Stewart lost almost $2,500 on his 400 shares. But Micrologix Biotech Inc., the company that replaced Cellegy, has almost doubled in two months. ``What tends to happen when a company fails a clinical trial is the stock drops and a lot of portfolio managers take the tax loss and forget about the stock. It doesn't mean that it's a bad stock and never going to do anything. It's just not going to do anything right now.' While Canadian biotech has just gone through a great run, gains in the sector still don't match those in the United States. Valuations of most Canadian companies are still a quarter to a third of comparable American companies. Though he doesn't think the companies will ever trade at par, Stewart sees this as evidence of considerable room for more growth. Would Stewart take profits at this point with so many of his stocks up? ``Any time you're up a lot of money, you're exposed to equal measures of fear and greed,' he responds. ``Historically biotech goes up 200 to 300 per cent, not just 100 per cent, when they have a run. Most people sell way too early. Am I going to sell? No.' Are any of the stocks in his portfolio buys at their current prices? ``I'm still very high on AnorMed Inc., Inex Pharmaceuticals Corp. and Stressgen Biotechnologies Corp. The rest are holds at this point.' Duncan Stewart is very uncomfortable with accolades like genius. Still, even his fellow Choice Portfolio experts (a very competitive bunch) are throwing admiring comments his way. But as Stewart well knows, tomorrow he could look like a chump, if only temporarily. So he might as well enjoy it while he can. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Choice Portfolios appears every Monday, with full portfolio updates the first Monday of each month. Send comments or questions to Choice Portfolios, Your Business, The Toronto Star, 1 Yonge St., Toronto M5E 1E6, e-mail cruise@ionsys.com or fax to (905) 878-9226.