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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jon Koplik who wrote (66152)	2/7/2000 2:27:00 AM
From: Skeeter Bug	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 152472

jon, in a rational investing environment one sets out to purchase assets that generate a future stream of profits. qcom will make profits in the future. so will intel, msft and ge. so will a tbill. you have a choice now. purchase a tbill and earn a guaranteed rate of return around 6.5% (it fluctuates) or buy a qcom that is expected to earn less than 1%. let's run some numbers. qcom was expected to grow 350% this year and about 50%/year for the next 9 years. when you run the math, you will see that over this 10 year period of time, the tbill will outperform qcom's expected eps by nearly 200%. in terms of market cap, that is about $40-50 BILLION DOLLARS MORE AND THE MONEY IS GUARANTEED! this type of technology is bleeding edge and i think those growth estimates are kind. i doubt qcom makes the first 350% assumption and questioned it well before qcom apparently stuffed the channel and admitted to a flat next q. sure, qcom said they were comfortable w/ year estimates, but so was old michael dell a couple weeks before disappointing last q ;-) speculation is speculation. it doesn't matter whether you speculate that interest rates go to 0% or eps will grow a zillion percent for a zillion years. btw, i think the aforementioned zillion analysis is way beyond the scope of the avg investor. all they say is "good company, buy me more shares." literally. most probably wouldn't know what valuation was if it was tied to a brick and hit 'em! good luck playing the greater fool game. you can do quite well. however, you gotta know when to fold 'em, too. or you lose it all.