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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Lone Star who wrote (34063)	2/7/2000 9:59:00 AM
From: Proud_Infidel	Respond to of 70976

PC Unit Sales in the 2nd Week of Jan. Show 70 Pct. Increase Y-O-Y February 7, 2000 (TOKYO) -- Personal computer sales remain brisk in Japan's retail market. Users who avoided PC purchases in fear of the Y2K problem started shopping right after New Year's day. The first week of January marked a record high. Although sales in the second week of January showed a large drop from the previous week, the figures still showed an increase from last year by about 70 percent in units and about 50 percent in value. According to a survey conducted by GfK Japan Ltd., an information services company handling POS data for 55 volume sales companies of home electric appliances, PC sales at about 2,000 large-scale retail stores in the second week of January 2000 (Jan. 10-18) decreased by 32.1 percent in units and 32.7 percent in value compared with the previous week. In comparson with the same week last year (Jan. 11-17, 1999), they increased by 67.4 percent in units and 50.6 percent in value. The average sales price dropped by 1,921 yen from 197,898 yen to 195,977 yen. The PC winter sales season peaked in the first week of December and then started to go downward. This time, the first week of January showed an exceptional sales increase and marked a record that matches the last week of December 1999. The last day of the three consecutive holidays (Jan. 8 -10) where the sales were at a peak was included in the survey for the second week, contributing to brisk sales. However, now, the inventory responding to rapidly increasing demand is becoming scarce. Some retail stores are trying to meet customer demand by bringing products from suburban shops to metropolitan areas. The sales entered a recess period in the third week of January, marking an end to a long winter sales season. GfK Japan collects POS data from 55 IT-related retail sales companies centering on high-volume stores specializing in home electric appliances. It covers about 3,200 stores (as of April 1998) throughout Japan. In cooperation with GfK Japan, Nikkei Market Access provides weekly reports of PC sales in volume and value. The sales data has been based on the same 41 companies (with about 2,000 stores) since April 1996. The number of PCs sold at the 2,000 stores is estimated to comprise about 10 percent of gross domestic shipments, and when limiting the sales to the retail sales channel, the share comes to about 25 percent of such shipments. nikkeibp.asiabiztech.com

To: Lone Star who wrote (34063)	2/7/2000 1:06:00 PM
From: Proud_Infidel	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

LoneStar, Whittington's forecasts 35% growth in 2000 over 1999 and 40% for 2001, bringing the industry to the magic $300 billion mark by 2001, he predicts. Furthermore, Whittington projects additional 40% sequential growth years in 2002 and 2003, resulting in nearly $600 billion in annual chip sales three years from now, this off a base of $160 billion in 1999. Given the the LT average of capex by the semis is apporx 20% of revs, this would imply a total market for AMAT of nearly 120B!!!! Also, since AMAT's total share is approximately 1/3 of the total market, we could be looking at a 40B company not too long from now if these projections come to fruition. This is far above any projections I have seen to date, and yes would mean an early retirement for most AMAT investors. BTW, should AMAT get 50% of the total market, as they said they had in recent comments, we are looking at addl revs of only 20B:-0 BK