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Technology Stocks : Intel Corporation (INTC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Joey Smith who wrote (98387)	2/7/2000 10:01:00 AM
From: Tony Viola	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 186894

Joey, was that the Salomon mention of Intel? We need an update from Process Boy on Coppermine ramp (although it's all there on the AMD thread from him if you want to get your shots and go there). Tony

To: Joey Smith who wrote (98387)	2/7/2000 10:02:00 AM
From: steve harris	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 186894

Joey, I heard the report as well. Was the fact they mentioned p3 500-733 but not 750 or 800 an oversight? steve

To: Joey Smith who wrote (98387)	2/7/2000 1:56:00 PM
From: Paul Engel	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 186894

Joey - Here is a section of the Salomon Smith Blarney report describing the increased availability of Intel CPUs. Note that the report also discusses an ABUNDANCE of AthWIPERs in the GRAY MARKET - no wonder !!!! Paul {===============================} Copyright Salomon Smith Barney (c) Supply of Intel's high-end chips improves slightly. Last week's checks of the processor channel found a slight improvement in the supply of Intel (INTC, 1M) Pentiums, ranging from 550 through 733MHz. Brokers who only last week were quoting lead times of three weeks to a month, claimed to have product on hand. We see this more as a positive indication that Intel production has improved than as a negative indication that OEMs were liquidating inventory. On the other hand, the P-III 450 and 500 still remained extremely tight, which is not surprising given that Intel wants to continue to move the market northward. Prices on those low-end Pentiums rose another 4% on average on the week, and have risen 20% over the last month. At the very high-end, though OEMs appear to have some P-III 750s and 800s in stock, supply remains tighter than normal, with no product available in the channel. Intel is assuring customers that availability should improve across the board by February 27, its next scheduled price cut. There were a couple of spot price indications in the market last week that suggested firmer, rather than weaker, demand. One was the behavior of processor spot prices following a price cut, or “move”, as Intel calls them. In really weak periods, spot prices trade at a discount to list, and often fall ahead of scheduled list price cuts. Though prices were cut two weeks ago, they have been “sticky” in adjusting downward, and are still trading at a 4% premium to new list pricing, down only marginally from a 6% premium last week. The P-III 550 remains the hottest high-end chip. We are also getting some positive price indications from chipset makers. Chipset prices were flat on the week at about $40, compared to a low-$20 list price. At least one broker noted, however, that improved CPU availability over the next few weeks would push BX chipset pricing up 25% from current levels. In talking to investors last week, PC OEMs were less positive about demand than the channel, though most are forecasting a pickup in the next month, or so. Part of the difference in outlook between the channel and OEMs could be that the channel and its spot prices tend to be forward-looking and to some degree, indicate future demand. In addition, many of the channel buyers are “white box” suppliers to the SOHO market, which has been pretty healthy (the channel “sellers” tend to be OEMs). Activity for AMD's (AMD, 1S) high-end Athlons remained strong with pricing flat week-over-week. At least in the gray market channel, AMD appears to have better availability of high-end 800MHz processors than does Intel.We hear AMD is on plan to ship a 1GHz Athlons in production volumes by the end of the second quarter, with the possibility of shipping in speed grades up to 1.4GHz by yearend. Low-end processor demand remains firm. Trading of low-end processors remained firm in the gray market last week with the average Celeron discount to list improving from 6% to 2%. Demand for AMD's low-end chips remained strong with pricing for the K6-3-450 rising 15% week-over-week. One broker noted having over 250 unmet orders for the K6-3 450. AMD will be phasing the K6 family out over the next couple of quarters as it ramps production of the PGA Athlon, at the low end called Spitfire and at the high end called Thunderbird. DRAM spot prices continue to drop. Last week's action in the DRAM market saw spot pricing for mainstream 64Mbs fall another 11% to $6.25. Broker sentiment grew increasingly negative with most anticipating further declines this week. Some brokers are even suggesting prices will fall in coming months back into the $4.00 range. This brings to mind a saying from an old Samsung marketing man that once prices begin to fall, they “usually don't stop until they hit hurt.” We figure “hurt” for most of the industry is in the $4-5 range. It is clear that inventories are growing. Checks with DRAM makers found OEMs not taking their full allocation, with anecdote suggesting the OEMs could have a full four weeks of inventory in their hubs, while the manufacturers likely have similar quantities on their shelves. As the scramble to avoid stocking product continued last week, DRAM makers were once again shopping large quantities of mainstream product at a discount to spot. Indeed, Micron (MU, 3S) and Samsung, who prefer direct sales over spot market transactions, have been active in the spot market in recent weeks.