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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dr. Id who wrote (17446)	2/7/2000 1:27:00 PM
From: tekboy	Respond to of 54805

DI, Let me add one final reason for continuing the search: to make us feel better and more secure in our existing holdings. Let's say we've finally gotten our portfolio allocation where we want it, and have healthy positions in a few major G&K favorites that have gone up in the past and that we hope will continue to do so in the future. We've researched these companies pretty thoroughly, and follow them closely, so we're pretty confident that we're in the right place. But we keep hearing this little voice inside our heads saying, "these are last year's things, everybody knows about them, the real action ahead will be in some crazy thing you don't know about, etc." Sometimes we can dismiss such thoughts easily, and just laugh at the rapid trajectories and hype surrounding momo stocks like, say, the Linux ones. But sometimes we really worry. Then we start looking around, trying to find the "new new thing," as Michael Lewis would put it--or the "next Q," as so many things are described. I find that the careful analyses of Project Hunt and its individual predecessors have been very helpful to me in maintaining confidence in my existing portfolio. From Ancor to Exodus to the rest, I watch as incredibly smart and sophisticated analysts present great companies in ultrahot sectors for inspection. I get intrigued, even tempted, but at the end of the day, looking closely, I don't think they compare to what I have at home, so I stay faithful. Every once in a while I'll add something new (CREE and GMST in October, ITWO in November, NTAP in December), but mostly I just like to watch. :0) tekboy/Ares@homebody.com

To: Dr. Id who wrote (17446)	2/7/2000 1:58:00 PM
From: ggamer	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 54805

Another survey to get a feel for the use of HDR in the future: (Please send me a PM only with the format shown in the bottom of this post. It will make my job a lot easier.) Please answer the following few questions: 1) Are you a user of a cellular phone at this time? a) yes b) no 2) Is your cellular phone capable of accessing the net? a) yes b) no 3) If your cellular phone is capable of accessing the net,have you used the service? a) yes b) no 4) Would you be a user of HDR in the future? a) yes b) no 5) If you are going to use HDR, will it be for: a) Personal use b) business use c) both 6) If you use HDR service in the future, will you cancel your subscription with your current ISP: a) yes b) no Format for the PM: Please send the answers in one line so I don't have to open the posts to get the results. Example (In one line): 1)a 2)b 3)a 4)b 5)c 6)b Please send your inputs as soon as you can. I will post the results in the next few days. Thanks in advance for your contribution. GGamer

To: Dr. Id who wrote (17446)	2/7/2000 2:02:00 PM
From: DownSouth	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

CSCO and fishing JDB, Frank's response to you a few days ago was a good one. Speaking for me, I am not really "retired". I have changed occupations. My job now is to build wealth for me and my family. Thus, I search for ways to double my net worth annually, at a minimum. (As a professional salesman, I am quite used to goals that seem unreasonable, and I am used to making those goals more times than not. It requires work and sound strategies.) I will go fishing later. <g>

To: Dr. Id who wrote (17446)	2/7/2000 3:59:00 PM
From: Lynn	Respond to of 54805

>... why do we feel compelled to risk by searching for new and unproven gorillas rather than simply staying with proven investments that we KNOW (as much as we can KNOW such things) will make us rich? Speaking for myself, and since you mentioned CSCO, my decision to sell 4/5 the shares of CSCO in my IRA last year was based purely on my, "Enough is enough," policy. If one can love a company, I love CSCO. CSCO was near its high when I sold and I did not expect it to retreat. I just felt I really did not want over 90% of my IRA in CSCO--so I sold 4/5 the shares and bought some other stocks [which have actually out performed CSCO this past year]. No, I do not regret this decision. I feel a lot better being a bit diversified in my IRA--and still have a wad of CSCO shares left, considering my shares go back to 1990 (despite the pleading of my broker not to buy this little unknown). I do not call it looking for the next gorilla. I say I'm on a quest to find the next CSCO. I'd like to think ARMHY is it but it never will be for me--I missed the first split [one of my criteria]. Lynn

To: Dr. Id who wrote (17446)	2/8/2000 11:46:00 AM
From: StockHawk	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 54805

>>why do we feel compelled to risk by searching for new and unproven gorillas rather than simply staying with proven investments that we KNOW<< That really is an excellent question, and you have received some fine responses. If you can stand one more, here's mine: I think you have, in fact, uncovered a bit of a paradox here. In a way, you are like the child who questioned why the king was wearing no clothes - you have observed something that does not quite make sense. Part of the foundation of the gorilla game is that it is a long term philosophy. Positions are evaluated quarterly and held for a long time. In reality, most of us check our stock prices at least daily, and for most, it is likely many times a day - or all day long. Such hands-on monitoring engenders tinkering. Perhaps it encourages a feeling that if I have not bought a stock this month I have not done anything. I can resist that impulse to do something if my stocks are rising strongly, but if they are flat the temptation may be overwhelming. I would bet that if someone did a careful analysis of this thread - comparing the number of posts about a company against the weekly performance of its stock - we would find that posts go up as the stock goes up. I saw someone who accused the G&K of being just another QCOM thread, and indeed, late last year when the Q was booming there were an awful lot of posts about it. There are still QCOM posts here, but not as many. Some will argue that is because the "discovery" is behind us, but it may also reflect the price weakness this year. If QCOM was at $300 now, instead of $130 talk about it might still be crowding out most other discussions. Many of the participants here had a plan to pare down their holdings. It is likely that many people reduced the number of stocks they own as they transitioned to a G&K investment style. Many posts attested to this in the second half of last year. Now it seems, more people are talking about adding additional positions. Why? In the manual the authors talk about people adopting a new technology because they are in pain. Perhaps that applies here. Why does anyone adopt the G&K philosophy? Well it sounds good, it makes logical sense and it is backed up by real world examples. But part of the reason is often that prior experience in the market was less than satisfactory. After all, if someone was burning up the charts by day trading, why switch. Many of us switched - or evolved - to find something better. And we did. If we were here last year we made a good bit of money - we are the envy of our friends and relatives. Perhaps we need to prove our savvy, demonstrate that finding QCOM or JDSU was not a fluke. Show we know whats next on the hit parade. We're certainly not in pain and we have the money to risk, the incentive to be bolder. Is that one of the traps gamblers fall into? I think one of the aspects of this issue that is very interesting is the type of companies coming up on our radar. While a pre-tornado stock might have been blasted off the thread in its early days are we more accepting of an investment that is in the bowling alley - or one that is just aiming at the first pins - or even a company not yet across the chasm? RMBS was an interesting case, lots of heady posts about its potential as the stock surged. Then it faltered, there were a few "I sensed it would fall" posts and then the volume of RMBS posts dropped off quite a bit. A rising stock price is thrilling. We like the feeling, we want to feel it as often as possible. I also think some of us always need to have something that is working. So if I have QCOM, JDSU and GMST and all three are down day after day it helps to be able to see the green numbers glowing next to CREE or SNDK or NTAP. I have one very small account that has no G&K stocks in it. It is my lottery ticket account. A few penny stocks that I bought a while back and just kept in a drawer. Lately, they have been popping. One of them, PARA is no shiney pebble. It is a dingy half a pebble that few would stop to pick up. (They are another eBay wanna-be, having set up a web barter site). But the crazy thing began the year under a buck and a half and is now over $6. So on occasion, when my wife comes home and asks "how did QCOM do today" (a question I encouraged late last year) I sometimes say "not much, but let me show you PARA." StockHawk