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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: SargeK who wrote (59901)	2/7/2000 5:20:00 PM
From: Brian P.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

February 7, 2000 Analysts Expect Dip in Oil Prices Filed at 4:54 p.m. EST By The Associated Press HOUSTON (AP) -- Even as oil prices flirt with levels last seen at the onset of the Gulf War, a new study is questioning how long international oil producers will continue to hold down production. In the 14th edition of their joint industry outlook, researchers from Arthur Andersen and Cambridge Energy Research Associates said Monday that oil prices currently hovering near $29 a barrel are likely to drop in the coming months as OPEC gauges what the world can afford. ``OPEC and key non-OPEC producers are keenly aware of the risks of prices rising too much as well as the risks of prices tumbling down toward single digits once again,' said the report, titled ``World Oil Trends 2000.' In short, said Cambridge Energy president Joseph Stanislaw, producing nations want to strike a balance between robust prices and affordable oil that won't break energy-dependent countries, particularly Far East nations emerging from economic crises. ``These prices for one quarter are fine. For two quarters, it's unsure. They don't want to destroy their markets,' Stanislaw said. ``The question is, when does (the high-price environment) impact world economic growth?' The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries likely will increase production in the late spring to bring prices back down to a more manageable level and blunt inflation, which could slow economic growth and stifle demand worldwide. Rising oil prices have had a limited effect on inflation in the United States, though certain industries are beginning to feel the pinch. Several airlines have tacked on $20 fuel surcharges to round-trip air fares, while a number of cargo companies have also raised rates. Few in the industry seem confident that the market will sustain $29 per barrel, nearly triple the price in December 1998. That outlook explains why exploration companies have been slow to act, said Victor Burk, Arthur Andersen's top energy expert. ``If oil producers believe the high oil prices that have prevailed since the second half of 1999 are sustainable, that belief could create investment incentives to increase worldwide oil production capacity even more,' Burk said. OPEC is scheduled to meet March 27 to make a decision on production levels. Currently, OPEC is holding back 6 million barrels of potential daily production, the study said. About 65 million barrels are produced worldwide each day. Similarly, the World Bank said last week it expected oil to fall from near $30 to below $20 later this year, a price level that would both be profitable for producers and a relief for consumers. On Monday, West Texas crude for delivery in March fell 42 cents to $28.50 in trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. OPEC's likely target would be for prices in the low-$20 range, Stanislaw said, but he cautioned that the market should expect continued volatility. World Oil magazine, an industry trade publication, predicted in its annual forecast last month that prices could stabilize between $25 and $28, which should entice production investment in late 2000. World Oil researchers forecast a worldwide drilling increase of 21.9 percent, to 60,343 wells drilled from about 49,500 in the bust year of 1999. U.S. activity is expected to see a more robust recovery, rising 30.6 percent to 24,416 wells drilled from 18,700 last year. Still, in addition to restraint over price uncertainty, the merger frenzy by the major oil companies and the slow recovery of independent companies have taken the focus off of production, despite high prices, said Bill Gilmer, chief economist of the Houston Branch of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. ``I don't think anybody is going to bet their company on an oil price forecast,' Gilmer said.

To: SargeK who wrote (59901)	2/7/2000 5:24:00 PM
From: BigBull	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

I like pipe. <eom>

To: SargeK who wrote (59901)	2/7/2000 7:20:00 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Respond to of 95453

SargeK ! - a screen name change to 'Deep Water Explorer' ? Say it aint so !?!?!?!?!? When I saw this "Street Advisor" giving a target price on FGH of 250%+ from today's price - and the comments on the potential "3-bagger" - I had to give it a sanity check (VBG) - and guess what I found ? Member 4370336 The reincarnation of the Internet Legend, the human worm virus himself, J.L. Holloway's long lost knuckled-headed step child - the one, the only, the beloved - SargeK...(VBG). (Your profile link still shows your former posts) ... I expected much better from a former Korean War Intel Man - even an informally uneducated non-comm. Let me guess, you tried to cross the border in Korea by scotch taping your eyelids - right, Wun Fook Lo ? On a serious note - FGH needs some news here. With that long, long wait untill they report; the "Vacumn-Gap" will be filled with selling imho. Holloway needs to be wooing & selling the Street here imo. I had my finger on the trigger today - ready to begin nibbling; but I passed. I want to see how it behaves here a bit. I couldn't live with myself if it breaks $5 again and I entered here (VBG). I'm kind of torn here; as for "DEEPWATER" to be booming to the extent that FGH will get newbuild orders; DO will have to be in the mid $40's and FLC will be $25+. So why shouldn't I just play "DEEPWATER" with the much lower risk - equally high reward; laggard deepwater driller-value plays here and let you & those in FGH here assume "all" the risk - and then enter in the $10 - low teens$ for the "potential" full recovery bounce to that $20ish target - if seen ? I think DO & FLC ramp in ANY deepwater recovery; but I am not so sure that FGH automatically does... The charges coming from the merger and continuing divestitures and lack of major newbuild orders still makes this a "show me the money" play. Sarge, errr - "Deep Water Explorer" - I'm going to see if this retests a break of $5. Good to see you back; but regardless of the name de plume~: ... a rose by any other name is still a rose ~ Actually; good to see you back - tone down the spamwiches and maybe ole' Friede will turn it around on its own ?