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Strategies & Market Trends : Rande Is . . . HOME -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ALTERN8 who wrote (20074)	2/7/2000 6:38:00 PM
From: Rande Is	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 57584

UPSIDE vs DOWNSIDE: . . . . ALTERN8, it is our duty to watch out for the less experienced, here on the HOME thread. To All: There are still many that come to these boards in search for a single play that will make them rich overnight. Don't do it. That has NEVER been how we play here at HOME. In fact, the MOST aggressive play we have ever had here has been the "Ultra Aggressive 10" portfolio, which has only 10 stocks. . .http://www.techstocks.com/~wsapi/investor/qport-8331745 [now up 38% YTD without being traded]. That is as much exposure as anyone should ever have. . . and it is not recommended that anyone even play just that port or only our other ports. . . but rather that everyone have a well balanced portfolio . . .with stocks, bonds, cash, etc. . . And if your mortgage is late and your credit cards are max'd out. . .then there are better ways of investing money than playing stocks. You may think this stuff goes without saying. . . but I am the one that reads many dozens of emails each day . . . .and you would not believe the way some still insist on playing & gambling. . . some will say, "I have $10,000 and want one stock to put it all on that will get me the biggest and fastest return." [As though I would take on such responsibility.] Alt8. . . .Another answer to your question of "why?" is this. . . . Do the math. . . ================================================ UPSIDE vs. DOWNSIDE FORMULA ----------------------------------------------- Those who bought in November: Potential Upside: $100 divided by $7 = 14.28 [+1328% possible on 100 target] [target / initial investment = Upside target gain] Potential Downside [based on current $37 value and initial $7 investment]: -25% = $0 loss . . .new value = $27.75 [+296%] -50% = $0 loss . . .new value = $18.50 [+164%] -75% = $0 loss . . .new value = $9.25 [+32%] ------------------------------------------------------ Those who would start a position today: Potential Upside: $100 divided by $37 = 2.70 [+170% possible at 100 target] [target / initial investment = Upside target gain] Potential Downside [based on current $37 value and initial $37 investment]: -25% = $9.25 loss. . .new value = $27.75 [-25%] -50% = $18.50 loss. . new value = $18.50 [-50%] -75% = $27.75 loss . .new value = $9.25 [-75%] ----------------------------------------------- Before starting an important position, we should all be making such calculations . . .This way you will know what to expect in EITHER direction. Alt8, If we don't tell it like it is. . . who will? Rande Is