To: Lucretius who wrote (7486 ) 2/7/2000 6:27:00 PM From: pater tenebrarum Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 42523
the sellers are likely the bullion banks, and /or GS and other investment banks. in any event, somebody has taken on the risk. that's the one feature of the current financial system that virtually guarantees bailout after bailout: the risk is always system-wide, since derivatives are a zero-sum game. Northern Trust recently opined that bubble boy won't be so quick coming to the rescue of the markets next time around since inflation is on the rise (all inflation indicators ex BSL's say so). NT's Kasriel thinks that means the Fed can't cut rates again when trouble hits, because it would risk overheating the economy and the markets even more and spark an outbreak of run-away inflation that way. guess what, the current cyclical upspike in inflation is a direct result of the last bailout. however, Kasriel's thinking is flawed. why do you think the speculators keep on flipping bubble boy the bird when he comes with his measly 25bp. hikes? because they KNOW they will be bailed out again. what other choice is there? if he refuses to bail the markets out over inflation concerns, the whole system could simply melt down because one or two hedge funds have been betting the wrong way... and yet, it is relatively easy to foresee that a fiat system laden with such risk is in the end doomed to fail anyway. one day there will be too many fires to put out at once, and then it'll all go down the toilet. the trick is to figure out when the moment of truth is at hand (possibly not for years, although i doubt that...the tanker is leaking already imo) and how to profit from such an event. puts may ultimately not be honored based on a 'force majeure' declaration. shorts are different, since you get your cash upfront. there's no counter-party risk involved.