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Technology Stocks : JDS Uniphase (JDSU) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: DOUG H who wrote (6082)	2/7/2000 8:36:00 PM
From: t2	Respond to of 24042

Doug, Ortel could have been feeling pressure from Lucent, which was becoming an important customer. If they had turned down the offer, say goodbye to a lot of badly needed biz for ORTEL. Ortel was not in the same league as SDLI, ETEK and JDSU. I still maintain that the Lucent takeover of Ortel was a good thing for JDSU. Whether they took over Ortel or gave them more business, there is no change to JDSU's competitive landscape. However, since ORTEL is being taken over by a systems company, other upstarts and other existing players like Ciena will not want to be buying from Lucent if they had a choice. They would go for the independents. Buying ORTEL is only to help Lucent's current capacity problems. Ortel will now lose potential customers---and i am refering to the NT or LU wannabes. I bet there are lots of them in this emerging industry. As long as there are huge barriers to entry, the Ortel takeover is a non-event from JDSU's perspective. NT and LU are going to remain big customers of JDSU. NT won't even build components (by increasing capacity) that they can get from JDSU. Their big production increases with new facilities is not to make inhouse what they get from external sources. It was only to increase production of what they already do inhouse. KK had said the trend is to outsource and he expected it to continue until 70% is bought from companies like JDSU up from the current 30%.