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Technology Stocks : Dell Technologies Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: jim kelley who wrote (153168)	2/7/2000 10:22:00 PM
From: Meathead	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 176387

Hi Jim. Re: It is clear that DELL is investing heavily in businesses outside of DELL. ..... At the same time their core business is growing faster than any other business its size (25B) has ever grown. This is a dilution of attention. You've hit on another key point and one that seems to have gotten a lot of people's attention. I remember Q4 last year when it was stated that they took their 'eye off the ball' alluding to the fact that it would not happen again. Now, after 4 one time events and a major recalibration of expectations, one has to wonder if Dell has finally matured and will be valued as a mature stock ala HWP, IBM, INTC etc. Clearly, there is a lot to talk about 'outside of the box' and new perceptions could definitely be spun. However, the near term earning potential of all these new initiatives still pale in comparison to the gargantuous revenue generated by HW sales. Drawing attention to them could have unpredictable results. As to the timing of the warning... I too thought it was 2 weeks too late considering how Dell's business model operates and the fact that they generally know where they are according to plan at any given time. But, I believe the timing was not out of line with other warnings from GTW and IBM who actually announced after the Q ended. MEATHEAD

To: jim kelley who wrote (153168)	2/7/2000 11:58:00 PM
From: Sig	Respond to of 176387

Great post Jim- so let me take the other side of it...(G) Perhaps we miss the point that Michael and his team have pulled off a miracle here in the last 4 months. Without which Dell could lie in smoking ruins. 1. YR2K concerns diverted buyers expenditures from new products 2. Rambus- Nearly complete failure to deliver a leading product which could have been a winner and still may become one. Original motherboards junked. 3. Intel failed to deliver critical components for standard PC's and delayed introduction of new processors. 4. Shortage of LCD's for Dells major growth item, the laptops 5. Quake caused dram and motherboard shortage and increased prices. 6. Advent of the cheapy/free PC/free ISP to take over the world and obtain >50% market. I would expect this to go down in history as the quarter from H%#l and if Dell was not so efficient and had not worked through the problems Dell might be reporting a Cpq/Ibm style of loss instead missing the optimistic earnings by 5 cents per share. Yes we may have been better informed on each of the many problems as they developed and were being resolved but it would have increased the volatility with little change todays stock price. I am not sure whether Dell should set a precedent on the Street (hehe) and be completely honest with shareholders about company affairs............ If Michael were to say this:"Well, to keep you informed, in six months we are making an offer for to buy an ISP( company y), to make a major investment in company x, produce set-top boxes, and spin off our entire z division" There might be 14 brokers trampled in a rush to get to the telephones and place buy orders- 20 minutes before the news release is out. Its up to the (new) CIO to help make decisions on what to say but a person in that position can ,I hope, withstand the resulting heat. SES

To: jim kelley who wrote (153168)	2/8/2000 8:34:00 AM
From: rdwng	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 176387

Jim, RE:"RE: DELL's situation and the CC I am not expecting DELL's stock to melt down further as a result of the upcoming earnings report. In fact, we have already been told what to expect and I think that will be the performance that is reported (approximately). The CC will not be that important -IMO - because even if DELL is very upbeat their words are not going to be accepted as in the past. Of course, huge news could move the stock up or down depending on whether it is positive or negative. Analyst and other people are going to be waiting to see if DELL is getting its management communications act together. There has to be proof! Credibility has been spent with this huge Q4 miss!...." FOr a what if, if DELL comes in above forecasts, do you belive this will hurt their credibility? Even you stated it was only 10 days of business. I admit that I wish DELL would be a performing much better, but I really think it's there own past success and refusal to lower expectations earlier that got them to this point. It's difficult to blow ones own horn when the message is lower/slower even when it's higher/faster than competion. JMHO Redwing