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Non-Tech : Tulipomania Blowoff Contest: Why and When will it end? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Bearded One who wrote (2660)2/8/2000 8:44:00 AM
From: pater tenebrarum  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 3543
 
BO, i think the inversion in the yield curve has the best chance to become a trigger for a down market. bank lending increases the money supply (the basis for the current valuations and the whole accelerated move since the middle '90's is a veritable explosion in money supply growth), and banks are less likely to lend when faced with a curve inversion. if the wedge between personal income stops expanding, the bull and the economy could fall off a cliff. however, for these likely changes in the banks' strategy to be felt you have to allow for some time to pass...it's not going to affect things right away. curve inversions are btw. very persistent...