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Technology Stocks : Softbank Group Corp -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mact who wrote (3733)	2/8/2000 2:36:00 AM
From: Edwin S. Fujinaka	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 6018

I don't think the value of Softbank's publicly held companies is $125 billion. At least not the total of the parts that Softbank holds. Look at : sbfinance.co.jp The market cap of Softbank's investment in publicly traded companies is only around $45 billion US (around $414/share). I think that Goldman Sachs had to estimate a value for the Softbank non public shares and then arbitrarily double the total to come up with their 184,000 yen target. I haven't seen the Lehman calculation to get to 400,000 yen, but as much as I like Softbank, I'm afraid that they must've applied some creative calculations that go beyond the old type of financial calculations that most of the old timers would accept. I believe that the long term success of Softbank is going to depend on some extremely successful IPOs, but I think they can still pull it off for another year or two. After that, the proliferation of internet venture capital companies will result in saturation of the marketplace and only a few new ipos will attract most of the new money. It is amazing how the new internet type companies are sucking up all of the capital and some pretty solid old line company stocks are not keeping up (Dow down and Nasdaq up). Capital is finite. BTW, 9984 is down tonight in Tokyo by 9000 yen to 125,000 yen or $1143 US. This is down quite a bit from the last close here in the US OC market at $1340. Actually it closed 14.7% lower in Tokyo than in the United States. A couple of Nikkei Net stories: This first story may need modifying when all of the new "mutual fund" trusts come on line. The second story may suggest more "internet mania", but how long can it be sustained? Monday, February 7, 2000 ANALYSIS: Japan Stock Rally Flies In Face Of Fundamentals TOKYO (Nikkei)--The Nikkei Stock Average topped 20,000 for the first time in about two and a half years last week, even though U.S. and European monetary authorities moved to tighten credit. Rather than being a signal that Japan is finally experiencing its long-awaited economic recovery, however, the divergence more so stems from the peculiarity of the Japanese business environment. One factor behind the rally is the fact that greater attention is being paid to the supply/demand balance. Foreign investors had been the main buyers in the market for some time, with domestic investors selling steadily since the collapse of the bubble economy. Individual investors are now coming back to the market after years of alienation, though, and this is changing the market's make-up. Driving this trend is a revival in the investment trust industry. Investment trusts are now available for purchase at banks and even through foreign companies, thanks to reforms instituted as part of Japan's Big Bang financial reform program. Aggregate net asset value of stock investment trusts grew by 4.2 trillion yen last year, the first rise in nine years. Still, net fund inflow or net buying by investment trusts barely reached 500 billion yen each last year, which compares with over 9 trillion yen in net purchases by foreign investors. Stock prices are determined by supply/demand conditions, which in turn reflect investor sentiment. That being said, fundamental value, earnings and interest rates can never be disregarded. While some popular stocks, including Sony Corp. (6758) and Softbank Corp. (9984), have soared to inexplicable heights, the shares of many companies in traditional industries remain weak. The prices reflect dreams for an uncertain information technology revolution and the reality of existing businesses. The situation suggests the Japanese economy will not see a revival as long as old-fashioned management and economic structures remain. Although the proportion of shares owned by financial institutions and nonfinancial companies has fallen to 60%, from a peak of 70%, they are expected to continue selling 5 trillion yen annually due to restructuring and the introduction of market value accounting. The reality is that Japanese investment trusts will not become leading buyers with prices at current levels. (The Nihon Keizai Shimbun Monday morning edition) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Monday, February 7, 2000 Tokyo Internet Entrepreneurs Suspend Regular Meeting TOKYO (Nikkei)--The Bit Valley Association, a group of entrepreneurs running Internet start-ups in Tokyo's Shibuya Ward, has decided to suspend regular meetings because attendance reached so high a level that the gatherings have become unmanageable. The association intends to organize smaller meetings and seminars focusing on specific themes to limit the number of participants and ensure a more efficient exchange of ideas. Bit Valley is the nickname for Shibuya where a large number of software developers and other Internet-related businesses operate. The name is an abbreviation of Bitter Valley, which is the direct English translation of the Japanese name. Since its establishment last spring, the association has staged monthly events for investors and managers of Internet start-ups. A total of 2,200 attended a single meeting on Feb. 2, with some of the more well-known participants being Softbank Corp. (9984) President Masayoshi Son, Bank of Japan Governor Masaru Hayami and Shintaro Ishihara, governor of Tokyo. Several businesses have been formed by individuals who attended the gatherings, thus inspiring people in other areas to organize similar meetings. (The Nihon Keizai Shimbun Monday morning edition)