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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Duker who wrote (34084)	2/8/2000 6:59:00 AM
From: w0z	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Yeah, I'll believe it when I see it! Yes, it really is scary to see things like this written. The article probably has some truth for semiconductors, where you can remove cyclicality by removing multiple levels of distribution and by going to more of a just-in-time inventory approach. However, I do not believe it holds for semiconductor equipment, which has VERY long lead times and where the semiconductor manufacturer must make a forecast of needed capacity. Any time humans are involved in forecasting, you will see boom and bust cycles...just as we probably will in the stock market!

To: Duker who wrote (34084)	2/8/2000 9:59:00 AM
From: Tony Viola	Respond to of 70976

Duker, >>The End of the World! An excerpt from the iWSJ: Semiconductor Industry Group Sees End to Boom-and-Bust Cycle<< Sounds like something I said last week. Actually, last boom cycle, there was a whole camp saying this, as we know. Still, nothing is for sure except death and taxes, somebody else said. Tony

To: Duker who wrote (34084)	2/8/2000 10:13:00 AM
From: Proud_Infidel	Respond to of 70976

TSMC to Lead Industry In 2000 Capital Spending at US$4.4B February 8, 2000 (NARITA, Chiba) -- The US$4.4 billion in capital spending planned for 2000 by Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Ltd. (TSMC) will likely be more than that of any other single firm in the industry, said Steve Tso, senior vice president of operations. From Japan nikkeibp.asiabiztech.com