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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Duker who wrote (34089)	2/8/2000 10:43:00 AM
From: w0z	Respond to of 70976

There are still values out there but I agree that CSCO is not one IMHO...I still like the Third Tier in this post: Message 12651442 I assume a 12% annual return for any calculations...if I do better than that then I'm very happy! (since 12/31/98 +192% in my CRT and +426% in my IRA but I would never assume such returns for future calculations)

To: Duker who wrote (34089)	2/8/2000 10:49:00 AM
From: Proud_Infidel	Respond to of 70976

Duker, There you go again bringing valuation into the picture:-)))) Seriously, it is somewhat annoying when every analyst comes onto CNBC pushing CSCO. Yes we know its a great company but in case you haven't noticed by looking at their chart IT'S BEEN DISCOVERED! I would love for an analyst to come up with one original pick....say LRCX one year ago. Instead they stick to the most expensive stocks in the whole universe because they know that the daytraders will keep pushing them higher with no regard to valuation and they will look smart in the end. We will probably see more upgrades of AMAT next week now that analysts know that capex plans have been finalized and their calls will be proven correct. Again, they will be doing this after the fact. Where were they when AMAT was sub-40? </rant> Brian

To: Duker who wrote (34089)	2/8/2000 10:50:00 AM
From: Guy Gordon	Respond to of 70976

There is another factor you are ignoring. Everyone you read, see, or hear, is preaching long term buy and hold. And everyone claims to belive in it. One consequence of this is that people are willing to buy earnings farther and farther out. People aren't just buying CSCO's & AMAT's 2000 earnings, or even just 2001 earnings. They are looking for companies that can continue to grow earnings for the next 5-10 years. It's rather shallow of commentators (not you, those on TV) to praise LTB&H, and then complain when investors take it to heart. [Note, I am not a LTB&H investor myself.]

To: Duker who wrote (34089)	2/8/2000 10:53:00 AM
From: Big Bucks	Respond to of 70976

Duker, Excellent commentary/argument!! At some point someone is going to pop this over=inflated balloon and it will come crashing to earth, IMO. Allan G and the Fed have been trying to slowly release some pressure but the positive pressure is overwhelming their relief efforts. I expect that the Fed needs to do an unannounced/unanticipated 0.25% rate increase between now and the next Fed meeting. If they do, reality will set in and the balloon will deflate post haste. They did this back in the Fall of 97 or 98 which caught the market off-guard and the correction was immediate. Folks, use some caution out there, we've made some tremendous profits over the last year, don't be afraid to maintain a significant cash position to scoop up potential "bargains" if the market has a significant correction due to Fed policy. Just my opinion, BB

To: Duker who wrote (34089)	2/8/2000 10:55:00 AM
From: Gottfried	Respond to of 70976

Duker, you said >Mercifully, there is still value throughout the market< Yeah, I bought some of those and they became even better values. :( Gottfried