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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Harold S. who wrote (59938)	2/8/2000 3:06:00 PM
From: jim_p	Respond to of 95453

I set some low bids on DO, BHI, PGO, KEG, and TDW before going to lunch. I just got back from lunch and found I bought all but PGO. I don't know if I feel good or bad? Jim

To: Harold S. who wrote (59938)	2/8/2000 3:15:00 PM
From: Think4Yourself	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

I like FLC as well but don't feel NOW is the time to buy. Chevron CEO's comments make sense. Big oil's balance sheets were castrated last year. They are concentrating on cost cutting and repairing the balance sheets. Why should they drill knowing OPEC could open the floodgates in a few months? When they are drilling, they are going after relatively few blockbusters in their site portfolio (usually deepwater). FLC is sitting there, out in the cold, with all of those rigs cold stacked (and there are a lot of them stacked). I can easily envision a scenario where they get hurt because the drilling market doesn't sufficiently recover this year. They also will have manpower issues if drilling DOES recover. Meanwhile, all of this time the domestic EnP's are raking in the bucks, and those that are actively drilling (like OEI and XTO) are growing by leaps and bounds as their competitor's production levels are declining. They are also getting the rigs and crews dirt cheap right now. It a can't lose situation for them. That is why you are seeing them BOTH pay down debt AND dramatically increase their drilling programs at the same time. I especially like XTO for the exact reason many don't: They are HIGHLY leveraged. They bought (excellent) properties at the bottom of the cycle using debt, and are now paying off the debt with the advantage high leverage is giving them in this favorable pricing environment. They are also selling off some oil properties in the current pricing environment. THAT is playing smart! The men are getting seperated from the boys now in EnP land. Look at the production trends and the exploration budgets to see who is who. That's why I actually don't like some of the EnP's in this great pricing environment. They aren't playing the game intelligently.