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Technology Stocks : Novell (NOVL) dirt cheap, good buy? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul Fiondella who wrote (30204)	2/8/2000 4:29:00 PM
From: Spartex	Respond to of 42771

Novell Versus Veritas by Chris Connor Click here for the introduction to the Ultimate Storage Championship. The Match-Up Fighting out of the red corner is the winner of a hard-fought battle with Brocade {BRCD} in the first round, Novell {NOVL}. Fighting out of the blue corner is Veritas, who squeaked out a victory over fellow storage giant EMC {EMC} in the opening round. This match-up pits the tournament's two software powerhouses against each other. These two companies have advanced to the second round because the efficient management of data will be the most crucial concern for the post-PC era. Round 1: Which Company has the Superior Leadership Position? Although Veritas is the world leader in storage management software, Novell has a tighter grasp on the directory market. Veritas has to contend with a number of major companies such as BMC software {BMCS}, Legato {LGTO}, IBM {IBM}, Sun Microsystems {SUNW}, and EMC. Software may make up a small amount of EMC's total sales, but EMC's presence in storage software is undeniably significant. Novell's directories have been superior to competitors' directories for years - including those proffered by software juggernaut Microsoft {MSFT}. Now, Novell has separated its directories from its floundering Netware products to extend its leadership in directories. Chalk this round up to Novell. Round 2: Which Company has a Better Growth Record? Without question, this round goes to Veritas. Novell has suffered through some tough years and appears to just now be getting back on track. On the other hand, Veritas has been on fire. Over the past four years, Veritas grew its revenues from just $15 million in the first quarter of 1996 to an outstanding $226 million in the fourth quarter of 1999, while Novell's revenues declined from about $438 million in the first quarter of 1996 to around $345 million in the fourth quarter of 1999. In addition, Veritas has increased its revenues thirteen straight quarters on a quarterly basis and twelve straight quarters on an annual basis. Projected growth also goes to Veritas. Analysts predict that Veritas will grow its earnings 47.8 percent per year over the next five years while they project that Novell will grow its earnings only 20.9 percent over that same time period. Round 3: Which Company's Industry has a Brighter Outlook? This final round will decide the outcome of the match-up. Although both software companies provide products that enable customers to manage their data more efficiently, these two companies serve completely different markets. In fact, some people may not consider Novell to be a storage company, but Novell is involved with Internet caching and its directories allow access to network storage from any location. Veritas' software performs more hands-on functions such as backing up data, protecting against storage hardware failures to eliminate business interruptions, increasing storage capacity, and speeding up data delivery. Furthermore, Veritas will ultimately be one of the major factors that renders Storage Area Networks (SAN) more user friendly. Nevertheless, directories could be to networks what Windows has been to the PC. Directories ensure that companies can communicate securely with their networks and those of their customers and partners. This communication between company networks facilitates optimal transaction of e-business. Via this technology, for example, suppliers can always be well-informed about shipment schedules, and important data can be gathered at the blink of an eye. Moreover, directories can capture user-specific information to better target customer preferences; every e-commerce company seeks this information to increase sales. Simply put, Novell's directory service has outgrown the boundaries of a software product to become the preferred standard for organizing and managing data on a network - which gives the storage referee authority to raise Novell's hand in this round. The Winner Novell defeats Veritas by a split decision and moves on to face Network Appliance {NTAP} in the championship. Novell will definitely have its work cut out for it as it goes against the most dominant company in this tournament thus far. The interesting point about this match-up for the championship is that both are major players in Internet caching. Can Novell stop Network Appliance in its tracks or will Network Appliance sweep another opponent? Find out in the championship. *This report is part of a multi- part series about storage in the post-PC era. Click here for the initial report that profiled the entire storage industry. Disclaimer: This report is published solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as advice or a recommendation to buy or sell a security. Trading involves risk, including possible loss of principal and other losses. Your trading results may vary. No representations are being made that utilizing techniques mentioned in this article will result in or guarantee profits in trading. Past performance is no indication of future results. wallstreetcity.com ++++++++++++++++++++++++ This guy Chris Connor "gets it" about the power of directories. Now if only NOVL can get a stock appreciation like EMC, NTAP and VRTS have the past 2-5 years. We're talking a $1,000 stock in 5-7 years IMHO. A Qualcomm special for Mr. Danti. =;-) Hey, I like to think "BIG", as I believe Eric does. Vision, product development, and execution. GO NOVL NET!

To: Paul Fiondella who wrote (30204)	2/8/2000 4:37:00 PM
From: PJ Strifas	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42771

Break-out resistance at $40 could be a "glass ceiling" as you say but I have some questions.... What number on the caching and NDS sales would you consider to be enough to force a break-out to the upside? Do you think 35% and 25% respectively would be more than enough growth in these key areas? Or am I thinking too high? Also, would you be looking for indications that other products are maintaining current revenue numbers (ie, NetWare server sales, ManageWise)? How much value will analysts and the market in general place on these recent annoucements of strategic partnering/alliances with known players in the e-Commerce field? Will they adopt a "wait and see" attitude or pre-build some support into Novell's stock price (perhaps on a graduated scale over time as services become available to users)? I believe that the IBM deal can have some non-$$ value in that IBM Global Services is a leader in providing the expertise, knowledge and experience to companies looking to solve their networking problems. From hardware to software issues, IBM Global is highly regarded by many. With Novell Consulting working closely with IBM Global - can we hope for some of those finer points to "rub off"? :) Some times an alliance or partnership can have rewards that are not easily quantified by a dollar amount. These "intangibles" can produce interesting futures where a company can gather momentum driving future growth and prosperity. Of course, these are merely my opinions but hey...even a broken clock is right 2x a day! Regards, Peter J Strifas

To: Paul Fiondella who wrote (30204)	2/8/2000 4:42:00 PM
From: ToySoldier	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42771

Any coincidence that todays onslaught of announcements of eDirectory and Novell's new Market Message of "Network Services Software" are within 2 weeks of MSFT's long awaited WIN2K release? I would think that the Novell marketing team does not want to be forgotten over the coming 1-2 months when the fully expected WIN2K hype sweeps that nation. GOOD CHESS MOVE NOVL - you're sounding more like MSFT's marketing team (and that is no insult at all!). What I also find prophetic is that the pr-release hype for WIN2K and even MSFT's stock price are almost no-shows. The media is not brainwashing us industry readers with WIN2K like they have in past major MSFT releases. MSFT stock price has not shown major hikes yet. And in fact the industry is already looking for and finding the WIN2K expected bugs and problems. I would think this is not just a tactical bad sign for MSFT, but an actual shift in the industry regarding MSFT's reign and dominance over the industry. The major fundamental shifts in the industry between MSFT's last major announcement (WIN95) and this up-coming one is showing signs of the damage it is starting to apply to MSFT's aging business model/rules. Toy

To: Paul Fiondella who wrote (30204)	2/11/2000 12:52:00 AM
From: Jack Whitley	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42771

<<Looks phenomenally good to me. There is resistance at 40, probably due to the body of analyst opinion out there looking at 40 as a price target. Undoubtedly a good quarter for Novell, coming on top of the motherlode of all releases of directory based products, will cause numerous upgrades from analysts. If Novell were to beat earnings expectations and see any significant revenues from any of its new product lines then we enter new territory. There is just no telling what kind of break-out we would get to the upside.>> I remember a few posts here recently when NOVL was added to Gilder's list. Posts to the effect that the run up was a knee-jerk reaction to being added to the list, and that any company added would experience the increase, so NOVL's potential in the "Telecosm" was not the real driver of that run up in price, all stocks added to the list ran up initially via a herd effect. This is absolutely not true. An example of this would be LSI Logic. Added to the list in July 1997 at 31 1/2. I watched it for a while. Watched it fall to below 20 during the next year, and then purchased, thinking we had hit rock bottom. LSI then warns in August 1998, and it tumbles to I think 10 or 11. Gilder never wavered, and in fact reiterated that LSI would be leaders in ASICs and CDMA chip sets, that SELECT, key Internet infrastructure providers (LSI being one) would be the real creators of wealth. (Meanwhile, Jubak on the Microsoft Money site recommended selling out in the teens). This afternoon, LSI touched 110 briefly, and will split 2 for 1 next week. Driven purely by Internet products in conjunction with solid earnings increases. I think it is just a matter of time before Novell experiences this same type of explosive move, only more sharply upward. NOVL has similar key pieces of the internet infrastructure, and they don't have to worry about fab equipment and mfg. processes. They just need to continue to work on drawing the simplest picture possible to enable the non-technical investment community to understand the power and potential of what they are now offering in the Internet space. jww